Crafton Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 42 points under the grade 3 bar. 2394 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2486 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2482 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,055	2431.2	− 2436	−4.8	× 115 / 333	−1.7
4	67,056	2481.4	− 2485	−3.6	× 119 / 333	−1.3
5	67,059	2484.4	− 2528	−43.6	× 99 / 333	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,198	2453.5	− 2436	17.5	× 94 / 334	4.9
4	62,200	2496.6	− 2485	11.6	× 121 / 334	4.2
5	62,202	2499.4	− 2528	−28.6	× 119 / 334	−10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,984	2422.2	− 2436	−13.8	× 98 / 326	−4.1
4	63,985	2504.9	− 2485	19.9	× 104 / 326	6.3
5	63,987	2514.8	− 2528	−13.2	× 124 / 326	−5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,088	2456.4	− 2436	20.4	× 100 / 316	6.5
4	64,090	2485.6	− 2485	0.6	× 105 / 316	0.2
5	64,092	2510.0	− 2528	−18	× 111 / 316	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,456	2437.0	− 2436	1	× 98 / 313	0.3
4	64,457	2505.9	− 2485	20.9	× 103 / 313	6.9
5	64,458	2465.7	− 2528	−62.3	× 112 / 313	−22.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,529	2435.4	− 2436	−0.6	× 111 / 329	−0.2
4	64,530	2485.5	− 2485	0.5	× 106 / 329	0.2
5	64,531	2506.2	− 2528	−21.8	× 112 / 329	−7.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,514	2424.9	− 2436	−11.1	× 121 / 344	−3.9
4	64,515	2470.9	− 2485	−14.1	× 111 / 344	−4.5
5	64,516	2480.6	− 2528	−47.4	× 112 / 344	−15.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,486	2405.7	− 2436	−30.3	× 98 / 341	−8.7
4	64,487	2478.0	− 2485	−7	× 128 / 341	−2.6
5	64,488	2476.8	− 2528	−51.2	× 115 / 341	−17.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,250	2418.5	− 2436	−17.5	× 111 / 345	−5.6
4	64,251	2448.3	− 2485	−36.7	× 102 / 345	−10.9
5	64,252	2487.6	− 2528	−40.4	× 132 / 345	−15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,222	2394.4	− 2436	−41.6	× 98 / 323	−12.6
4	64,223	2486.2	− 2485	1.2	× 118 / 323	0.4
5	64,224	2482.1	− 2528	−45.9	× 107 / 323	−15.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −16, −1, −3, 0, −15, −7, −24, −29, −32, −27 → −15.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 15 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 17 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 5 → average 8.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.1 × 2.66 = 21.5. Upper limit 6.1, lower limit −36.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.