San Bernardino: math

The shaded band is this county's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,101	2399.1	− 2436	−36.9	× 31575 / 211358	−5.5
4	64,102	2435.7	− 2485	−49.3	× 30882 / 211358	−7.2
5	64,105	2460.7	− 2528	−67.3	× 30295 / 211358	−9.6
6	64,106	2485.4	− 2552	−66.6	× 30342 / 211358	−9.6
7	64,109	2495.3	− 2567	−71.7	× 29932 / 211358	−10.2
8	64,110	2513.2	− 2586	−72.8	× 30062 / 211358	−10.4
11	64,113	2539.1	− 2628	−88.9	× 28270 / 211358	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,447	2408.3	− 2436	−27.7	× 30212 / 213272	−3.9
4	59,449	2441.1	− 2485	−43.9	× 31722 / 213272	−6.5
5	59,452	2463.1	− 2528	−64.9	× 31016 / 213272	−9.4
6	59,453	2487.7	− 2552	−64.3	× 30306 / 213272	−9.1
7	59,456	2502.0	− 2567	−65	× 30348 / 213272	−9.2
8	59,457	2516.7	− 2586	−69.3	× 30114 / 213272	−9.8
11	59,459	2543.3	− 2628	−84.7	× 29554 / 213272	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,188	2411.0	− 2436	−25	× 29807 / 212522	−3.5
4	61,191	2443.4	− 2485	−41.6	× 30220 / 212522	−5.9
5	61,193	2464.4	− 2528	−63.6	× 31708 / 212522	−9.5
6	61,195	2488.0	− 2552	−64	× 30873 / 212522	−9.3
7	61,196	2500.0	− 2567	−67	× 30290 / 212522	−9.5
8	61,198	2516.5	− 2586	−69.5	× 30160 / 212522	−9.9
11	61,201	2540.2	− 2628	−87.8	× 29464 / 212522	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,303	2416.2	− 2436	−19.8	× 28881 / 210420	−2.7
4	61,306	2449.1	− 2485	−35.9	× 29847 / 210420	−5.1
5	61,308	2470.6	− 2528	−57.4	× 30311 / 210420	−8.3
6	61,309	2491.4	− 2552	−60.6	× 31732 / 210420	−9.1
7	61,312	2498.9	− 2567	−68.1	× 30673 / 210420	−9.9
8	61,313	2513.7	− 2586	−72.3	× 30150 / 210420	−10.4
11	61,316	2541.3	− 2628	−86.7	× 28826 / 210420	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,556	2418.7	− 2436	−17.3	× 29632 / 212204	−2.4
4	61,557	2455.1	− 2485	−29.9	× 29384 / 212204	−4.1
5	61,558	2475.6	− 2528	−52.4	× 30318 / 212204	−7.5
6	61,559	2495.4	− 2552	−56.6	× 30673 / 212204	−8.2
7	61,560	2501.0	− 2567	−66	× 32009 / 212204	−10
8	61,561	2511.8	− 2586	−74.2	× 31052 / 212204	−10.9
11	61,562	2542.3	− 2628	−85.7	× 29136 / 212204	−11.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,167	2384.1	− 2436	−51.9	× 1641 / 21579	−3.9
4	60,168	2418.7	− 2485	−66.3	× 1548 / 21579	−4.8
5	60,169	2446.0	− 2528	−82	× 1476 / 21579	−5.6
6	60,170	2452.7	− 2552	−99.3	× 1673 / 21579	−7.7
7	60,171	2470.8	− 2567	−96.2	× 3312 / 21579	−14.8
8	60,172	2471.4	− 2586	−114.6	× 3453 / 21579	−18.3
11	60,173	2556.1	− 2628	−71.9	× 8476 / 21579	−28.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,639	2395.3	− 2436	−40.7	× 28609 / 204589	−5.7
4	61,640	2431.6	− 2485	−53.4	× 29077 / 204589	−7.6
5	61,641	2452.9	− 2528	−75.1	× 29388 / 204589	−10.8
6	61,642	2476.4	− 2552	−75.6	× 29424 / 204589	−10.9
7	61,643	2484.0	− 2567	−83	× 29021 / 204589	−11.8
8	61,644	2489.9	− 2586	−96.1	× 29751 / 204589	−14
11	61,645	2517.3	− 2628	−110.7	× 29319 / 204589	−15.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,577	2401.9	− 2436	−34.1	× 28539 / 205359	−4.7
4	61,578	2438.4	− 2485	−46.6	× 28937 / 205359	−6.6
5	61,579	2456.2	− 2528	−71.8	× 29269 / 205359	−10.2
6	61,580	2478.1	− 2552	−73.9	× 29576 / 205359	−10.6
7	61,581	2484.0	− 2567	−83	× 29436 / 205359	−11.9
8	61,582	2491.8	− 2586	−94.2	× 29201 / 205359	−13.4
11	61,583	2521.5	− 2628	−106.5	× 30401 / 205359	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,526	2403.3	− 2436	−32.7	× 28444 / 204745	−4.5
4	61,527	2441.3	− 2485	−43.7	× 28763 / 204745	−6.1
5	61,528	2459.2	− 2528	−68.8	× 29204 / 204745	−9.8
6	61,529	2479.7	− 2552	−72.3	× 29477 / 204745	−10.4
7	61,530	2488.9	− 2567	−78.1	× 29709 / 204745	−11.3
8	61,531	2497.5	− 2586	−88.5	× 29645 / 204745	−12.8
11	61,532	2527.7	− 2628	−100.3	× 29503 / 204745	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,275	2406.6	− 2436	−29.4	× 28538 / 204556	−4.1
4	61,276	2443.1	− 2485	−41.9	× 28681 / 204556	−5.9
5	61,277	2463.7	− 2528	−64.3	× 29013 / 204556	−9.1
6	61,278	2484.0	− 2552	−68	× 29294 / 204556	−9.7
7	61,279	2495.4	− 2567	−71.6	× 29687 / 204556	−10.4
8	61,280	2504.7	− 2586	−81.3	× 29946 / 204556	−11.9
11	61,281	2537.3	− 2628	−90.7	× 29397 / 204556	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,230	2409.1	− 2436	−26.9	× 27445 / 200956	−3.7
4	61,231	2443.6	− 2485	−41.4	× 28619 / 200956	−5.9
5	61,232	2465.7	− 2528	−62.3	× 28693 / 200956	−8.9
6	61,233	2487.0	− 2552	−65	× 28816 / 200956	−9.3
7	61,234	2498.3	− 2567	−68.7	× 29245 / 200956	−10
8	61,235	2511.3	− 2586	−74.7	× 29376 / 200956	−10.9
11	61,236	2540.1	− 2628	−87.9	× 28762 / 200956	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −64, −60, −60, −57, −55, −83, −77, −73, −70, −64, −61 → −65.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2021: 28 · 2021→2022: 6 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 6 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 5.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.9 × 2.66 = 15.7. Upper limit −50.1, lower limit −81.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a county, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.