Oro Grande: math · Schoolio

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,881	2407.3	− 2436	−28.7	× 173 / 1357	−3.7
4	66,883	2443.5	− 2485	−41.5	× 171 / 1357	−5.2
5	66,885	2446.7	− 2528	−81.3	× 173 / 1357	−10.4
6	66,887	2485.7	− 2552	−66.3	× 216 / 1357	−10.6
7	66,889	2482.9	− 2567	−84.1	× 236 / 1357	−14.6
8	66,891	2472.7	− 2586	−113.3	× 215 / 1357	−18
11	66,893	2554.6	− 2628	−73.4	× 173 / 1357	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,036	2409.1	− 2436	−26.9	× 166 / 1307	−3.4
4	62,038	2434.6	− 2485	−50.4	× 169 / 1307	−6.5
5	62,039	2483.3	− 2528	−44.7	× 168 / 1307	−5.7
6	62,041	2478.5	− 2552	−73.5	× 195 / 1307	−11
7	62,044	2487.5	− 2567	−79.5	× 235 / 1307	−14.3
8	62,046	2487.6	− 2586	−98.4	× 233 / 1307	−17.5
11	62,047	2544.9	− 2628	−83.1	× 141 / 1307	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,822	2391.9	− 2436	−44.1	× 172 / 1332	−5.7
4	63,824	2435.2	− 2485	−49.8	× 172 / 1332	−6.4
5	63,825	2466.5	− 2528	−61.5	× 172 / 1332	−7.9
6	63,827	2463.8	− 2552	−88.2	× 204 / 1332	−13.5
7	63,830	2468.8	− 2567	−98.2	× 245 / 1332	−18.1
8	63,832	2486.7	− 2586	−99.3	× 237 / 1332	−17.7
11	63,834	2553.8	− 2628	−74.2	× 130 / 1332	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,926	2393.5	− 2436	−42.5	× 172 / 1321	−5.5
4	63,929	2425.4	− 2485	−59.6	× 170 / 1321	−7.7
5	63,930	2469.7	− 2528	−58.3	× 175 / 1321	−7.7
6	63,933	2447.0	− 2552	−105	× 201 / 1321	−16
7	63,934	2459.5	− 2567	−107.5	× 240 / 1321	−19.5
8	63,937	2464.1	− 2586	−121.9	× 235 / 1321	−21.7
11	63,938	2553.8	− 2628	−74.2	× 128 / 1321	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,192	2400.2	− 2436	−35.8	× 172 / 1363	−4.5
4	64,193	2456.7	− 2485	−28.3	× 175 / 1363	−3.6
5	64,194	2479.9	− 2528	−48.1	× 166 / 1363	−5.9
6	64,195	2450.9	− 2552	−101.1	× 200 / 1363	−14.8
7	64,196	2458.7	− 2567	−108.3	× 256 / 1363	−20.3
8	64,197	2486.3	− 2586	−99.7	× 246 / 1363	−18
11	64,198	2537.3	− 2628	−90.7	× 148 / 1363	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	62,821	2496.4	− 2628	−131.6	× 91 / 91	−131.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−132

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,278	2334.1	− 2436	−101.9	× 15 / 72	−21.2
4	64,279	2371.2	− 2485	−113.8	× 17 / 72	−26.9
5	64,280	2356.4	− 2528	−171.6	× 15 / 72	−35.8
6	64,281	2388.3	− 2552	−163.7	× 25 / 72	−56.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−141

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	64,261	2350.5	− 2436	−85.5	× 11 / 56	−16.8
4	64,262	2400.1	− 2485	−84.9	× 14 / 56	−21.2
5	64,263	2430.7	− 2528	−97.3	× 14 / 56	−24.3
6	64,264	2378.8	− 2552	−173.2	× 17 / 56	−52.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	64,236	2408.1	− 2485	−76.9	× 11 / 40	−21.1
5	64,237	2388.1	− 2528	−139.9	× 15 / 40	−52.5
6	64,238	2367.5	− 2552	−184.5	× 14 / 40	−64.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−138

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,999	2347.2	− 2436	−88.8	× 11 / 26	−37.6
6	64,002	2385.9	− 2552	−166.1	× 15 / 26	−95.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−133

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,971	2408.0	− 2436	−28	× 18 / 54	−9.3
4	63,972	2373.8	− 2485	−111.2	× 13 / 54	−26.8
5	63,973	2445.3	− 2528	−82.7	× 12 / 54	−18.4
6	63,974	2456.6	− 2552	−95.4	× 11 / 54	−19.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −72, −67, −77, −85, −77, −132, −141, −115, −138, −133, −74 → −101
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2021: 55 · 2021→2022: 9 · 2022→2023: 26 · 2023→2024: 23 · 2024→2025: 5 · 2025→2026: 59 → average 20.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 20.8 × 2.66 = 55.3. Upper limit −45.7, lower limit −156.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Oro Grande