Vista Colorado Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade 3 bar

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 74 points under the grade 3 bar. 2362 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 26 points under the grade 3 bar. 2410 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores just under the grade 3 bar. 2433 vs. 2436. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,510	2362.5	− 2436	−73.5	× 72 / 216	−24.5
4	66,513	2441.3	− 2485	−43.7	× 68 / 216	−13.8
5	66,514	2470.0	− 2528	−58	× 76 / 216	−20.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,692	2381.3	− 2436	−54.7	× 83 / 226	−20.1
4	61,693	2403.6	− 2485	−81.4	× 73 / 226	−26.3
5	61,696	2483.0	− 2528	−45	× 70 / 226	−13.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,474	2395.5	− 2436	−40.5	× 72 / 215	−13.6
4	63,475	2410.4	− 2485	−74.6	× 75 / 215	−26
5	63,478	2486.6	− 2528	−41.4	× 68 / 215	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,575	2385.5	− 2436	−50.5	× 54 / 200	−13.6
4	63,577	2436.6	− 2485	−48.4	× 68 / 200	−16.5
5	63,579	2508.5	− 2528	−19.5	× 78 / 200	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,834	2414.6	− 2436	−21.4	× 61 / 197	−6.6
4	63,835	2437.4	− 2485	−47.6	× 60 / 197	−14.5
5	63,836	2491.2	− 2528	−36.8	× 76 / 197	−14.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,921	2390.2	− 2436	−45.8	× 57 / 172	−15.2
4	63,922	2428.5	− 2485	−56.5	× 51 / 172	−16.8
5	63,923	2473.5	− 2528	−54.5	× 64 / 172	−20.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,888	2389.5	− 2436	−46.5	× 71 / 174	−19
4	63,889	2427.1	− 2485	−57.9	× 56 / 174	−18.6
5	63,890	2452.3	− 2528	−75.7	× 47 / 174	−20.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,862	2367.0	− 2436	−69	× 49 / 175	−19.3
4	63,863	2434.9	− 2485	−50.1	× 70 / 175	−20
5	63,864	2416.9	− 2528	−111.1	× 56 / 175	−35.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,624	2375.6	− 2436	−60.4	× 50 / 170	−17.8
4	63,625	2430.2	− 2485	−54.8	× 49 / 170	−15.8
5	63,626	2451.2	− 2528	−76.8	× 71 / 170	−32.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,590	2362.1	− 2436	−73.9	× 49 / 151	−24
4	63,591	2410.0	− 2485	−75	× 47 / 151	−23.3
5	63,592	2432.8	− 2528	−95.2	× 55 / 151	−34.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −59, −60, −53, −38, −35, −52, −58, −75, −66, −82 → −57.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 17 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 17 · 2024→2025: 9 · 2025→2026: 16 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit −30.9, lower limit −84.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.