Shadow Ridge: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 11.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 73 points under the grade 3 bar. 2363 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 3 bar. 2432 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 17 points under the grade 3 bar. 2419 vs. 2436. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 27 points under the grade 4 bar. 2458 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores 15 points under the grade 4 bar. 2470 vs. 2485. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 36 points under the grade 4 bar. 2450 vs. 2485. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.
11th The average 11th grader scores 21 points under the grade 4 bar. 2464 vs. 2485. The 11th-grade bar is 2628.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	69,309	2414.8	− 2567	−152.2	× 15 / 57	−40.1
8	69,311	2410.7	− 2586	−175.3	× 19 / 57	−58.4
11	69,313	2474.6	− 2628	−153.4	× 23 / 57	−61.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−160

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
8	64,231	2467.8	− 2586	−118.2	× 13 / 44	−34.9
11	64,234	2485.9	− 2628	−142.1	× 31 / 44	−100.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−135

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	66,032	2523.7	− 2628	−104.3	× 25 / 25	−104.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	66,108	2445.6	− 2567	−121.4	× 11 / 31	−43.1
11	66,112	2502.9	− 2628	−125.1	× 20 / 31	−80.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−124

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	66,494	2496.9	− 2567	−70.1	× 26 / 73	−25
8	66,495	2442.8	− 2586	−143.2	× 24 / 73	−47.1
11	66,496	2474.3	− 2628	−153.7	× 23 / 73	−48.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−120

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	65,075	2479.0	− 2628	−149	× 30 / 30	−149
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−149

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,564	2309.2	− 2436	−126.8	× 35 / 330	−13.4
4	66,565	2377.9	− 2485	−107.1	× 54 / 330	−17.5
5	66,566	2418.8	− 2528	−109.2	× 33 / 330	−10.9
6	66,567	2443.2	− 2552	−108.8	× 32 / 330	−10.6
7	66,568	2444.3	− 2567	−122.7	× 55 / 330	−20.5
8	66,569	2441.2	− 2586	−144.8	× 63 / 330	−27.6
11	66,570	2468.5	− 2628	−159.5	× 58 / 330	−28
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−129

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,562	2339.1	− 2436	−96.9	× 19 / 284	−6.5
4	66,563	2355.3	− 2485	−129.7	× 21 / 284	−9.6
5	66,564	2394.8	− 2528	−133.2	× 32 / 284	−15
6	66,565	2441.5	− 2552	−110.5	× 30 / 284	−11.7
7	66,566	2435.9	− 2567	−131.1	× 57 / 284	−26.3
8	66,567	2411.7	− 2586	−174.3	× 64 / 284	−39.3
11	66,568	2458.6	− 2628	−169.4	× 61 / 284	−36.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−145

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,546	2357.2	− 2436	−78.8	× 18 / 264	−5.4
4	66,547	2388.6	− 2485	−96.4	× 22 / 264	−8
5	66,548	2393.0	− 2528	−135	× 25 / 264	−12.8
6	66,549	2441.1	− 2552	−110.9	× 26 / 264	−10.9
7	66,550	2416.2	− 2567	−150.8	× 51 / 264	−29.1
8	66,551	2419.8	− 2586	−166.2	× 66 / 264	−41.6
11	66,552	2456.3	− 2628	−171.7	× 56 / 264	−36.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−144

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,292	2363.2	− 2436	−72.8	× 17 / 254	−4.9
4	66,293	2415.2	− 2485	−69.8	× 22 / 254	−6
5	66,294	2457.9	− 2528	−70.1	× 23 / 254	−6.3
6	66,295	2431.5	− 2552	−120.5	× 24 / 254	−11.4
7	66,296	2430.3	− 2567	−136.7	× 49 / 254	−26.4
8	66,297	2440.6	− 2586	−145.4	× 70 / 254	−40.1
11	66,298	2474.4	− 2628	−153.6	× 49 / 254	−29.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−125

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,268	2363.2	− 2436	−72.8	× 21 / 213	−7.2
4	66,269	2431.5	− 2485	−53.5	× 18 / 213	−4.5
5	66,270	2418.9	− 2528	−109.1	× 17 / 213	−8.7
6	66,271	2457.6	− 2552	−94.4	× 27 / 213	−12
7	66,272	2469.8	− 2567	−97.2	× 44 / 213	−20.1
8	66,273	2449.5	− 2586	−136.5	× 49 / 213	−31.4
11	66,274	2464.4	− 2628	−163.6	× 37 / 213	−28.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−112

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −160, −135, −104, −124, −120, −149, −129, −145, −144, −125, −112 → −131.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 25 · 2016→2017: 31 · 2017→2018: 20 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2021: 29 · 2021→2022: 20 · 2022→2023: 16 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 19 · 2025→2026: 13 → average 17.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 17.8 × 2.66 = 47.3. Upper limit −84.2, lower limit −178.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.