Pony Express Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2438 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 38 points under the grade 4 bar. 2447 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 11 points under the grade 4 bar. 2474 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2560 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,753	2416.0	− 2436	−20	× 68 / 295	−4.6
4	61,755	2460.8	− 2485	−24.2	× 71 / 295	−5.8
5	61,757	2526.8	− 2528	−1.2	× 62 / 295	−0.3
6	61,759	2560.3	− 2552	8.3	× 94 / 295	2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,313	2426.4	− 2436	−9.6	× 56 / 258	−2.1
4	57,315	2462.3	− 2485	−22.7	× 72 / 258	−6.3
5	57,318	2483.1	− 2528	−44.9	× 68 / 258	−11.8
6	57,320	2573.6	− 2552	21.6	× 62 / 258	5.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,989	2416.7	− 2436	−19.3	× 47 / 238	−3.8
4	58,990	2467.6	− 2485	−17.4	× 62 / 238	−4.5
5	58,993	2498.4	− 2528	−29.6	× 69 / 238	−8.6
6	58,995	2552.6	− 2552	0.6	× 60 / 238	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,103	2432.2	− 2436	−3.8	× 66 / 245	−1
4	59,106	2468.0	− 2485	−17	× 55 / 245	−3.8
5	59,107	2512.1	− 2528	−15.9	× 62 / 245	−4
6	59,110	2562.0	− 2552	10	× 62 / 245	2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,359	2438.0	− 2436	2	× 64 / 236	0.5
4	59,360	2487.9	− 2485	2.9	× 64 / 236	0.8
5	59,361	2486.7	− 2528	−41.3	× 53 / 236	−9.3
6	59,362	2564.3	− 2552	12.3	× 55 / 236	2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,442	2431.6	− 2436	−4.4	× 54 / 223	−1.1
4	59,443	2466.2	− 2485	−18.8	× 62 / 223	−5.2
5	59,444	2493.1	− 2528	−34.9	× 52 / 223	−8.1
6	59,445	2539.1	− 2552	−12.9	× 55 / 223	−3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,400	2443.6	− 2436	7.6	× 45 / 205	1.7
4	59,401	2477.9	− 2485	−7.1	× 55 / 205	−1.9
5	59,402	2495.0	− 2528	−33	× 56 / 205	−9
6	59,403	2532.2	− 2552	−19.8	× 49 / 205	−4.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,331	2438.5	− 2436	2.5	× 49 / 219	0.6
4	59,332	2454.2	− 2485	−30.8	× 56 / 219	−7.9
5	59,333	2499.9	− 2528	−28.1	× 56 / 219	−7.2
6	59,334	2534.8	− 2552	−17.2	× 58 / 219	−4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,088	2421.7	− 2436	−14.3	× 43 / 199	−3.1
4	59,089	2460.1	− 2485	−24.9	× 54 / 199	−6.8
5	59,090	2502.8	− 2528	−25.2	× 55 / 199	−7
6	59,091	2567.5	− 2552	15.5	× 47 / 199	3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,011	2438.3	− 2436	2.3	× 41 / 198	0.5
4	59,012	2446.9	− 2485	−38.1	× 51 / 198	−9.8
5	59,013	2473.6	− 2528	−54.4	× 51 / 198	−14
6	59,014	2560.1	− 2552	8.1	× 55 / 198	2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −8, −15, −17, −6, −5, −18, −14, −19, −13, −21 → −13.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 6 · 2025→2026: 8 → average 6.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.3 × 2.66 = 16.8. Upper limit 3.2, lower limit −30.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.