Alice Birney Waldorf-Inspired: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 57 points under the grade 3 bar. 2379 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 10 points under the grade 3 bar. 2426 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 29 points under the grade 4 bar. 2456 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 11 points under the grade 4 bar. 2474 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores just under the grade 7 bar. 2559 vs. 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 18 points under the grade 6 bar. 2535 vs. 2552. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,659	2386.5	− 2436	−49.5	× 60 / 348	−8.5
4	61,660	2433.4	− 2485	−51.6	× 58 / 348	−8.6
5	61,663	2473.3	− 2528	−54.7	× 63 / 348	−9.9
6	61,664	2484.7	− 2552	−67.3	× 55 / 348	−10.6
7	61,667	2573.4	− 2567	6.4	× 57 / 348	1
8	61,668	2548.6	− 2586	−37.4	× 55 / 348	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,220	2389.6	− 2436	−46.4	× 50 / 330	−7
4	57,221	2449.4	− 2485	−35.6	× 53 / 330	−5.7
5	57,224	2486.6	− 2528	−41.4	× 55 / 330	−6.9
6	57,225	2493.3	− 2552	−58.7	× 60 / 330	−10.7
7	57,228	2529.1	− 2567	−37.9	× 60 / 330	−6.9
8	57,229	2577.1	− 2586	−8.9	× 52 / 330	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,895	2365.1	− 2436	−70.9	× 55 / 327	−11.9
4	58,897	2465.1	− 2485	−19.9	× 54 / 327	−3.3
5	58,898	2451.9	− 2528	−76.1	× 54 / 327	−12.6
6	58,900	2501.3	− 2552	−50.7	× 56 / 327	−8.7
7	58,903	2516.3	− 2567	−50.7	× 53 / 327	−8.2
8	58,905	2489.3	− 2586	−96.7	× 55 / 327	−16.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,010	2384.0	− 2436	−52	× 54 / 323	−8.7
4	59,011	2462.5	− 2485	−22.5	× 56 / 323	−3.9
5	59,014	2504.8	− 2528	−23.2	× 57 / 323	−4.1
6	59,015	2449.7	− 2552	−102.3	× 58 / 323	−18.4
7	59,018	2558.7	− 2567	−8.3	× 43 / 323	−1.1
8	59,019	2528.3	− 2586	−57.7	× 55 / 323	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,267	2388.2	− 2436	−47.8	× 43 / 306	−6.7
4	59,268	2423.5	− 2485	−61.5	× 54 / 306	−10.9
5	59,269	2436.2	− 2528	−91.8	× 53 / 306	−15.9
6	59,270	2497.4	− 2552	−54.6	× 58 / 306	−10.3
7	59,271	2500.8	− 2567	−66.2	× 59 / 306	−12.8
8	59,272	2585.4	− 2586	−0.6	× 39 / 306	−0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,350	2393.6	− 2436	−42.4	× 41 / 275	−6.3
4	59,351	2415.0	− 2485	−70	× 47 / 275	−12
5	59,352	2457.3	− 2528	−70.7	× 41 / 275	−10.5
6	59,353	2518.4	− 2552	−33.6	× 50 / 275	−6.1
7	59,354	2528.3	− 2567	−38.7	× 54 / 275	−7.6
8	59,355	2549.6	− 2586	−36.4	× 42 / 275	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,308	2390.7	− 2436	−45.3	× 45 / 301	−6.8
4	59,309	2456.3	− 2485	−28.7	× 58 / 301	−5.5
5	59,310	2435.5	− 2528	−92.5	× 48 / 301	−14.8
6	59,311	2464.4	− 2552	−87.6	× 48 / 301	−14
7	59,312	2549.5	− 2567	−17.5	× 53 / 301	−3.1
8	59,313	2546.6	− 2586	−39.4	× 49 / 301	−6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,239	2365.1	− 2436	−70.9	× 45 / 302	−10.6
4	59,240	2422.9	− 2485	−62.1	× 57 / 302	−11.7
5	59,241	2481.2	− 2528	−46.8	× 57 / 302	−8.8
6	59,242	2480.4	− 2552	−71.6	× 50 / 302	−11.9
7	59,243	2525.8	− 2567	−41.2	× 46 / 302	−6.3
8	59,244	2549.4	− 2586	−36.6	× 47 / 302	−5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,996	2369.4	− 2436	−66.6	× 47 / 304	−10.3
4	58,997	2446.2	− 2485	−38.8	× 48 / 304	−6.1
5	58,998	2432.9	− 2528	−95.1	× 56 / 304	−17.5
6	58,999	2527.9	− 2552	−24.1	× 57 / 304	−4.5
7	59,000	2536.6	− 2567	−30.4	× 48 / 304	−4.8
8	59,001	2495.7	− 2586	−90.3	× 48 / 304	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,919	2378.8	− 2436	−57.2	× 46 / 313	−8.4
4	58,920	2426.4	− 2485	−58.6	× 59 / 313	−11
5	58,921	2455.9	− 2528	−72.1	× 52 / 313	−12
6	58,922	2474.0	− 2552	−78	× 59 / 313	−14.7
7	58,923	2559.1	− 2567	−7.9	× 51 / 313	−1.3
8	58,924	2534.5	− 2586	−51.5	× 46 / 313	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −43, −39, −61, −46, −57, −48, −51, −55, −58, −55 → −51.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 22 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 9 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 8.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.2 × 2.66 = 21.8. Upper limit −29.5, lower limit −73.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.