Evans Ranch Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2450 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2480 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores just under the grade 5 bar. 2522 vs. 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,971	2421.4	− 2436	−14.6	× 103 / 279	−5.4
4	56,973	2449.4	− 2485	−35.6	× 86 / 279	−11
5	56,975	2476.7	− 2528	−51.3	× 90 / 279	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,903	2412.0	− 2436	−24	× 85 / 293	−7
4	52,906	2455.0	− 2485	−30	× 113 / 293	−11.6
5	52,907	2472.5	− 2528	−55.5	× 95 / 293	−18
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,423	2429.4	− 2436	−6.6	× 123 / 333	−2.4
4	54,424	2437.6	− 2485	−47.4	× 87 / 333	−12.4
5	54,426	2507.5	− 2528	−20.5	× 123 / 333	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,536	2433.6	− 2436	−2.4	× 112 / 321	−0.8
4	54,537	2471.9	− 2485	−13.1	× 118 / 321	−4.8
5	54,540	2489.8	− 2528	−38.2	× 91 / 321	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,778	2442.8	− 2436	6.8	× 123 / 357	2.3
4	54,779	2469.3	− 2485	−15.7	× 115 / 357	−5.1
5	54,780	2515.8	− 2528	−12.2	× 119 / 357	−4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,814	2416.5	− 2436	−19.5	× 114 / 342	−6.5
4	54,815	2466.2	− 2485	−18.8	× 105 / 342	−5.8
5	54,816	2482.3	− 2528	−45.7	× 123 / 342	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,765	2436.3	− 2436	0.3	× 131 / 355	0.1
4	54,766	2440.7	− 2485	−44.3	× 112 / 355	−14
5	54,767	2510.7	− 2528	−17.3	× 112 / 355	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,635	2428.7	− 2436	−7.3	× 126 / 361	−2.5
4	54,636	2441.2	− 2485	−43.8	× 126 / 361	−15.3
5	54,637	2504.4	− 2528	−23.6	× 109 / 361	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,375	2438.7	− 2436	2.7	× 128 / 385	0.9
4	54,376	2465.4	− 2485	−19.6	× 129 / 385	−6.6
5	54,377	2527.2	− 2528	−0.8	× 128 / 385	−0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,312	2449.9	− 2436	13.9	× 109 / 360	4.2
4	54,313	2480.1	− 2485	−4.9	× 125 / 360	−1.7
5	54,314	2521.9	− 2528	−6.1	× 126 / 360	−2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −33, −37, −22, −16, −7, −29, −19, −25, −6, 0 → −19.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 22 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 19 · 2025→2026: 6 → average 10.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.8 × 2.66 = 28.7. Upper limit 9.3, lower limit −48.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.