Ronald E. McNair Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2483 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2550 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 20 points under the grade 5 bar. 2508 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 10 points under the grade 6 bar. 2542 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,976	2347.5	− 2436	−88.5	× 82 / 274	−26.5
4	38,978	2377.1	− 2485	−107.9	× 101 / 274	−39.8
5	38,980	2430.6	− 2528	−97.4	× 91 / 274	−32.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,145	2379.4	− 2436	−56.6	× 81 / 266	−17.2
4	36,146	2396.4	− 2485	−88.6	× 87 / 266	−29
5	36,148	2448.1	− 2528	−79.9	× 98 / 266	−29.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,890	2437.8	− 2436	1.8	× 82 / 257	0.6
4	36,892	2425.2	− 2485	−59.8	× 82 / 257	−19.1
5	36,894	2451.5	− 2528	−76.5	× 93 / 257	−27.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,861	2398.8	− 2436	−37.2	× 72 / 231	−11.6
4	36,863	2429.1	− 2485	−55.9	× 86 / 231	−20.8
5	36,865	2473.8	− 2528	−54.2	× 73 / 231	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,050	2447.1	− 2436	11.1	× 50 / 219	2.5
4	37,051	2439.2	− 2485	−45.8	× 68 / 219	−14.2
5	37,052	2490.8	− 2528	−37.2	× 76 / 219	−12.9
6	37,053	2553.2	− 2552	1.2	× 25 / 219	0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,967	2440.5	− 2436	4.5	× 54 / 185	1.3
4	36,968	2455.9	− 2485	−29.1	× 48 / 185	−7.6
5	36,969	2455.2	− 2528	−72.8	× 51 / 185	−20.1
6	36,970	2470.3	− 2552	−81.7	× 32 / 185	−14.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,000	2447.2	− 2436	11.2	× 33 / 172	2.1
4	37,001	2447.7	− 2485	−37.3	× 59 / 172	−12.8
5	37,002	2487.6	− 2528	−40.4	× 51 / 172	−12
6	37,003	2484.2	− 2552	−67.8	× 29 / 172	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,850	2475.4	− 2436	39.4	× 41 / 165	9.8
4	36,851	2470.2	− 2485	−14.8	× 33 / 165	−3
5	36,852	2485.2	− 2528	−42.8	× 60 / 165	−15.6
6	36,853	2560.3	− 2552	8.3	× 31 / 165	1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,685	2520.5	− 2436	84.5	× 52 / 167	26.3
4	36,686	2476.2	− 2485	−8.8	× 38 / 167	−2
5	36,687	2506.1	− 2528	−21.9	× 34 / 167	−4.5
6	36,688	2551.2	− 2552	−0.8	× 43 / 167	−0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						20

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,677	2482.9	− 2436	46.9	× 38 / 167	10.7
4	36,678	2550.0	− 2485	65	× 53 / 167	20.6
5	36,679	2508.3	− 2528	−19.7	× 50 / 167	−5.9
6	36,680	2541.7	− 2552	−10.3	× 26 / 167	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						24

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −99, −76, −46, −50, −24, −40, −34, −7, 20, 24 → −33.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 23 · 2016→2017: 30 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 26 · 2019→2022: 16 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 27 · 2024→2025: 27 · 2025→2026: 4 → average 18.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 18.1 × 2.66 = 48.1. Upper limit 14.9, lower limit −81.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.