McKinley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 18 points under the grade 3 bar. 2418 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 39 points under the grade 3 bar. 2397 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 38 points under the grade 5 bar. 2490 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 20 points under the grade 4 bar. 2465 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores 15 points under the grade 5 bar. 2513 vs. 2528. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 10 points under the grade 5 bar. 2518 vs. 2528. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,097	2336.6	− 2436	−99.4	× 69 / 192	−35.7
4	39,100	2397.4	− 2485	−87.6	× 65 / 192	−29.7
5	39,101	2385.0	− 2528	−143	× 58 / 192	−43.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,281	2384.1	− 2436	−51.9	× 69 / 201	−17.8
4	36,283	2418.9	− 2485	−66.1	× 71 / 201	−23.3
5	36,284	2442.3	− 2528	−85.7	× 61 / 201	−26
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,040	2391.0	− 2436	−45	× 84 / 217	−17.4
4	37,043	2436.7	− 2485	−48.3	× 68 / 217	−15.1
5	37,044	2487.2	− 2528	−40.8	× 65 / 217	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,011	2458.4	− 2436	22.4	× 55 / 218	5.7
4	37,013	2506.0	− 2485	21	× 77 / 218	7.4
5	37,015	2473.6	− 2528	−54.4	× 57 / 218	−14.2
6	37,017	2618.7	− 2552	66.7	× 29 / 218	8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,213	2465.7	− 2436	29.7	× 62 / 244	7.5
4	37,214	2474.2	− 2485	−10.8	× 56 / 244	−2.5
5	37,215	2499.2	− 2528	−28.8	× 66 / 244	−7.8
6	37,216	2497.3	− 2552	−54.7	× 35 / 244	−7.8
7	37,217	2671.4	− 2567	104.4	× 25 / 244	10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,131	2402.8	− 2436	−33.2	× 49 / 264	−6.2
4	37,132	2415.6	− 2485	−69.4	× 71 / 264	−18.7
5	37,133	2407.7	− 2528	−120.3	× 50 / 264	−22.8
6	37,134	2494.4	− 2552	−57.6	× 32 / 264	−7
7	37,135	2514.7	− 2567	−52.3	× 21 / 264	−4.2
8	37,136	2506.2	− 2586	−79.8	× 41 / 264	−12.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,164	2434.3	− 2436	−1.7	× 50 / 244	−0.3
4	37,165	2455.3	− 2485	−29.7	× 51 / 244	−6.2
5	37,166	2471.0	− 2528	−57	× 70 / 244	−16.4
6	37,167	2470.7	− 2552	−81.3	× 24 / 244	−8
7	37,168	2502.3	− 2567	−64.7	× 29 / 244	−7.7
8	37,169	2490.7	− 2586	−95.3	× 20 / 244	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,014	2384.9	− 2436	−51.1	× 50 / 232	−11
4	37,015	2444.6	− 2485	−40.4	× 52 / 232	−9.1
5	37,016	2450.1	− 2528	−77.9	× 51 / 232	−17.1
6	37,017	2494.5	− 2552	−57.5	× 33 / 232	−8.2
7	37,018	2530.6	− 2567	−36.4	× 19 / 232	−3
8	37,019	2506.3	− 2586	−79.7	× 27 / 232	−9.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,851	2398.7	− 2436	−37.3	× 40 / 215	−6.9
4	36,852	2441.3	− 2485	−43.7	× 48 / 215	−9.8
5	36,853	2459.2	− 2528	−68.8	× 52 / 215	−16.6
6	36,854	2471.6	− 2552	−80.4	× 33 / 215	−12.3
7	36,855	2545.4	− 2567	−21.6	× 29 / 215	−2.9
8	36,856	2592.8	− 2586	6.8	× 13 / 215	0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,843	2417.6	− 2436	−18.4	× 38 / 219	−3.2
4	36,844	2397.0	− 2485	−88	× 45 / 219	−18.1
5	36,845	2490.2	− 2528	−37.8	× 42 / 219	−7.2
6	36,846	2464.7	− 2552	−87.3	× 33 / 219	−13.2
7	36,847	2513.2	− 2567	−53.8	× 32 / 219	−7.9
8	36,848	2518.0	− 2586	−68	× 29 / 219	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −109, −67, −45, 8, 0, −71, −46, −58, −48, −59 → −49.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 42 · 2016→2017: 22 · 2017→2018: 53 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 71 · 2022→2023: 25 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 10 · 2025→2026: 11 → average 28.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 28.2 × 2.66 = 75. Upper limit 25.5, lower limit −124.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.