Bakersfield City: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,818	2380.8	− 2436	−55.2	× 3559 / 18627	−10.5
4	15,821	2420.3	− 2485	−64.7	× 3321 / 18627	−11.5
5	15,822	2436.0	− 2528	−92	× 3184 / 18627	−15.7
6	15,825	2462.0	− 2552	−90	× 2994 / 18627	−14.5
7	15,826	2459.8	− 2567	−107.2	× 2857 / 18627	−16.4
8	15,829	2479.4	− 2586	−106.6	× 2712 / 18627	−15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	14,839	2393.0	− 2436	−43	× 3186 / 18820	−7.3
4	14,840	2427.6	− 2485	−57.4	× 3487 / 18820	−10.6
5	14,842	2444.2	− 2528	−83.8	× 3300 / 18820	−14.7
6	14,844	2462.3	− 2552	−89.7	× 3107 / 18820	−14.8
7	14,847	2461.8	− 2567	−105.2	× 2895 / 18820	−16.2
8	14,848	2491.5	− 2586	−94.5	× 2845 / 18820	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,156	2401.7	− 2436	−34.3	× 3385 / 18974	−6.1
4	15,157	2432.5	− 2485	−52.5	× 3144 / 18974	−8.7
5	15,160	2449.6	− 2528	−78.4	× 3486 / 18974	−14.4
6	15,162	2473.2	− 2552	−78.8	× 3180 / 18974	−13.2
7	15,164	2474.7	− 2567	−92.3	× 2945 / 18974	−14.3
8	15,166	2483.1	− 2586	−102.9	× 2834 / 18974	−15.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,176	2395.5	− 2436	−40.5	× 3223 / 19289	−6.8
4	15,179	2427.6	− 2485	−57.4	× 3399 / 19289	−10.1
5	15,180	2446.1	− 2528	−81.9	× 3170 / 19289	−13.5
6	15,183	2468.5	− 2552	−83.5	× 3410 / 19289	−14.8
7	15,184	2473.5	− 2567	−93.5	× 3090 / 19289	−15
8	15,187	2484.1	− 2586	−101.9	× 2997 / 19289	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,291	2400.7	− 2436	−35.3	× 3345 / 19412	−6.1
4	15,292	2432.3	− 2485	−52.7	× 3235 / 19412	−8.8
5	15,293	2445.8	− 2528	−82.2	× 3403 / 19412	−14.4
6	15,294	2465.3	− 2552	−86.7	× 3104 / 19412	−13.9
7	15,295	2471.8	− 2567	−95.2	× 3263 / 19412	−16
8	15,296	2483.0	− 2586	−103	× 3062 / 19412	−16.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,303	2363.8	− 2436	−72.2	× 3278 / 19186	−12.3
4	15,304	2396.8	− 2485	−88.2	× 3168 / 19186	−14.6
5	15,305	2414.6	− 2528	−113.4	× 3269 / 19186	−19.3
6	15,306	2442.4	− 2552	−109.6	× 3232 / 19186	−18.5
7	15,307	2443.8	− 2567	−123.2	× 3032 / 19186	−19.5
8	15,308	2445.2	− 2586	−140.8	× 3207 / 19186	−23.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,253	2372.2	− 2436	−63.8	× 3136 / 18852	−10.6
4	15,254	2412.2	− 2485	−72.8	× 3236 / 18852	−12.5
5	15,255	2421.0	− 2528	−107	× 3141 / 18852	−17.8
6	15,256	2441.1	− 2552	−110.9	× 3235 / 18852	−19
7	15,257	2450.5	− 2567	−116.5	× 3079 / 18852	−19
8	15,258	2447.6	− 2586	−138.4	× 3025 / 18852	−22.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,200	2373.8	− 2436	−62.2	× 3050 / 18732	−10.1
4	15,201	2409.6	− 2485	−75.4	× 3133 / 18732	−12.6
5	15,202	2424.2	− 2528	−103.8	× 3225 / 18732	−17.9
6	15,203	2438.2	− 2552	−113.8	× 3154 / 18732	−19.2
7	15,204	2441.9	− 2567	−125.1	× 3094 / 18732	−20.7
8	15,205	2454.9	− 2586	−131.1	× 3076 / 18732	−21.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,193	2376.9	− 2436	−59.1	× 2968 / 18398	−9.5
4	15,194	2413.1	− 2485	−71.9	× 3059 / 18398	−12
5	15,195	2421.3	− 2528	−106.7	× 3082 / 18398	−17.9
6	15,196	2448.5	− 2552	−103.5	× 3191 / 18398	−18
7	15,197	2442.3	− 2567	−124.7	× 3034 / 18398	−20.6
8	15,198	2449.1	− 2586	−136.9	× 3064 / 18398	−22.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,210	2380.4	− 2436	−55.6	× 2712 / 17506	−8.6
4	15,211	2413.0	− 2485	−72	× 2888 / 17506	−11.9
5	15,212	2427.3	− 2528	−100.7	× 2976 / 17506	−17.1
6	15,213	2445.8	− 2552	−106.2	× 2971 / 17506	−18
7	15,214	2448.3	− 2567	−118.7	× 3004 / 17506	−20.4
8	15,215	2457.6	− 2586	−128.4	× 2955 / 17506	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −84, −78, −72, −76, −75, −108, −101, −102, −101, −98 → −89.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 33 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 1 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 6.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.9 × 2.66 = 18.4. Upper limit −71.1, lower limit −107.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Bakersfield City