Freshwater Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,662	2472.3	− 2436	36.3	× 37 / 195	6.9
4	13,665	2507.7	− 2485	22.7	× 36 / 195	4.2
5	13,666	2523.5	− 2528	−4.5	× 36 / 195	−0.8
6	13,669	2542.5	− 2552	−9.5	× 36 / 195	−1.8
7	13,670	2565.3	− 2567	−1.7	× 26 / 195	−0.2
8	13,673	2555.3	− 2586	−30.7	× 24 / 195	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,693	2445.5	− 2436	9.5	× 43 / 192	2.1
4	12,694	2494.8	− 2485	9.8	× 39 / 192	2
5	12,697	2535.0	− 2528	7	× 36 / 192	1.3
6	12,698	2558.1	− 2552	6.1	× 27 / 192	0.9
7	12,700	2597.3	− 2567	30.3	× 22 / 192	3.5
8	12,703	2600.2	− 2586	14.2	× 25 / 192	1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,027	2438.6	− 2436	2.6	× 48 / 210	0.6
4	13,029	2482.6	− 2485	−2.4	× 42 / 210	−0.5
5	13,032	2528.5	− 2528	0.5	× 40 / 210	0.1
6	13,033	2566.3	− 2552	14.3	× 31 / 210	2.1
7	13,036	2614.9	− 2567	47.9	× 27 / 210	6.2
8	13,038	2619.5	− 2586	33.5	× 22 / 210	3.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,037	2426.4	− 2436	−9.6	× 41 / 224	−1.8
4	13,040	2494.8	− 2485	9.8	× 47 / 224	2.1
5	13,041	2517.2	− 2528	−10.8	× 46 / 224	−2.2
6	13,044	2559.6	− 2552	7.6	× 37 / 224	1.3
7	13,045	2596.5	− 2567	29.5	× 26 / 224	3.4
8	13,048	2622.7	− 2586	36.7	× 27 / 224	4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,163	2435.0	− 2436	−1	× 47 / 223	−0.2
4	13,164	2477.2	− 2485	−7.8	× 42 / 223	−1.5
5	13,165	2529.5	− 2528	1.5	× 44 / 223	0.3
6	13,166	2521.5	− 2552	−30.5	× 39 / 223	−5.3
7	13,167	2590.9	− 2567	23.9	× 28 / 223	3
8	13,168	2595.0	− 2586	9	× 23 / 223	0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,007	2418.9	− 2436	−17.1	× 31 / 177	−3
4	13,008	2468.4	− 2485	−16.6	× 33 / 177	−3.1
5	13,009	2485.6	− 2528	−42.4	× 45 / 177	−10.8
6	13,010	2480.7	− 2552	−71.3	× 29 / 177	−11.7
7	13,011	2584.2	− 2567	17.2	× 20 / 177	1.9
8	13,012	2529.3	− 2586	−56.7	× 19 / 177	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,196	2431.1	− 2436	−4.9	× 33 / 187	−0.9
4	13,197	2473.1	− 2485	−11.9	× 36 / 187	−2.3
5	13,198	2476.3	− 2528	−51.7	× 36 / 187	−10
6	13,199	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 39 / 187	−3.7
7	13,200	2572.9	− 2567	5.9	× 19 / 187	0.6
8	13,201	2646.8	− 2586	60.8	× 24 / 187	7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,173	2445.9	− 2436	9.9	× 46 / 195	2.3
4	13,174	2459.2	− 2485	−25.8	× 33 / 195	−4.4
5	13,175	2482.3	− 2528	−45.7	× 35 / 195	−8.2
6	13,176	2524.2	− 2552	−27.8	× 36 / 195	−5.1
7	13,177	2569.0	− 2567	2	× 27 / 195	0.3
8	13,178	2586.7	− 2586	0.7	× 18 / 195	0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,138	2442.6	− 2436	6.6	× 36 / 186	1.3
4	13,139	2488.7	− 2485	3.7	× 44 / 186	0.9
5	13,140	2497.6	− 2528	−30.4	× 32 / 186	−5.2
6	13,141	2511.2	− 2552	−40.8	× 29 / 186	−6.4
7	13,142	2569.0	− 2567	2	× 27 / 186	0.3
8	13,143	2595.6	− 2586	9.6	× 18 / 186	0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,108	2449.2	− 2436	13.2	× 33 / 193	2.3
4	13,109	2496.1	− 2485	11.1	× 37 / 193	2.1
5	13,110	2512.1	− 2528	−15.9	× 43 / 193	−3.5
6	13,111	2535.4	− 2552	−16.6	× 30 / 193	−2.6
7	13,112	2553.6	− 2567	−13.4	× 25 / 193	−1.7
8	13,113	2570.8	− 2586	−15.2	× 25 / 193	−2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,120	2430.4	− 2436	−5.6	× 34 / 192	−1
4	13,121	2477.6	− 2485	−7.4	× 35 / 192	−1.3
5	13,122	2521.8	− 2528	−6.2	× 38 / 192	−1.2
6	13,123	2532.1	− 2552	−19.9	× 38 / 192	−3.9
7	13,124	2584.4	− 2567	17.4	× 22 / 192	2
8	13,125	2585.6	− 2586	−0.4	× 25 / 192	−0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 4, 12, 12, 7, −3, −33, −8, −15, −8, −5, −6 → −3.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2021: 30 · 2021→2022: 25 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 9.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.6 × 2.66 = 25.5. Upper limit 21.6, lower limit −29.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Freshwater Elementary