Pioneer Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2443 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 47 points under the grade 4 bar. 2438 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 37 points under the grade 4 bar. 2448 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,216	2401.8	− 2436	−34.2	× 26 / 49	−18.1
4	9,219	2495.3	− 2485	10.3	× 23 / 49	4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,297	2416.3	− 2436	−19.7	× 29 / 58	−9.9
4	8,298	2457.1	− 2485	−27.9	× 29 / 58	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,568	2412.1	− 2436	−23.9	× 32 / 58	−13.2
4	8,571	2470.3	− 2485	−14.7	× 26 / 58	−6.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,603	2417.6	− 2436	−18.4	× 30 / 63	−8.8
4	8,604	2457.0	− 2485	−28	× 33 / 63	−14.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,656	2448.0	− 2436	12	× 26 / 92	3.4
4	8,657	2450.1	− 2485	−34.9	× 33 / 92	−12.5
5	8,658	2464.5	− 2528	−63.5	× 33 / 92	−22.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,488	2388.8	− 2436	−47.2	× 18 / 75	−11.3
4	8,489	2444.8	− 2485	−40.2	× 32 / 75	−17.2
5	8,490	2480.6	− 2528	−47.4	× 25 / 75	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,609	2409.5	− 2436	−26.5	× 35 / 85	−10.9
4	8,610	2415.1	− 2485	−69.9	× 14 / 85	−11.5
5	8,611	2450.1	− 2528	−77.9	× 36 / 85	−33
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,587	2404.0	− 2436	−32	× 23 / 68	−10.8
4	8,588	2436.0	− 2485	−49	× 27 / 68	−19.5
5	8,589	2465.8	− 2528	−62.2	× 18 / 68	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,533	2405.7	− 2436	−30.3	× 29 / 96	−9.2
4	8,534	2413.3	− 2485	−71.7	× 28 / 96	−20.9
5	8,535	2453.8	− 2528	−74.2	× 39 / 96	−30.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,492	2405.6	− 2436	−30.4	× 22 / 67	−10
4	8,493	2434.4	− 2485	−50.6	× 26 / 67	−19.6
5	8,494	2459.6	− 2528	−68.4	× 19 / 67	−19.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,508	2442.8	− 2436	6.8	× 28 / 82	2.3
4	8,509	2438.1	− 2485	−46.9	× 28 / 82	−16
5	8,510	2448.2	− 2528	−79.8	× 26 / 82	−25.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −13, −24, −20, −23, −32, −44, −55, −47, −60, −49, −39 → −36.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2021: 12 · 2021→2022: 11 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 11 · 2025→2026: 10 → average 9.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.2 × 2.66 = 24.5. Upper limit −12.4, lower limit −61.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.