El Dorado: math · Schoolio

The shaded band is this county's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,680	2439.4	− 2436	3.4	× 1978 / 13864	0.5
4	8,683	2475.9	− 2485	−9.1	× 1951 / 13864	−1.3
5	8,684	2506.0	− 2528	−22	× 2044 / 13864	−3.2
6	8,687	2538.7	− 2552	−13.3	× 1963 / 13864	−1.9
7	8,688	2558.8	− 2567	−8.2	× 1990 / 13864	−1.2
8	8,691	2575.2	− 2586	−10.8	× 1996 / 13864	−1.6
11	8,692	2601.5	− 2628	−26.5	× 1942 / 13864	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,791	2446.8	− 2436	10.8	× 2040 / 14305	1.5
4	7,793	2482.1	− 2485	−2.9	× 2057 / 14305	−0.4
5	7,795	2511.5	− 2528	−16.5	× 1990 / 14305	−2.3
6	7,796	2537.5	− 2552	−14.5	× 2103 / 14305	−2.1
7	7,798	2562.6	− 2567	−4.4	× 2041 / 14305	−0.6
8	7,800	2583.1	− 2586	−2.9	× 2011 / 14305	−0.4
11	7,803	2611.8	− 2628	−16.2	× 2063 / 14305	−2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,036	2444.9	− 2436	8.9	× 1862 / 14113	1.2
4	8,038	2484.4	− 2485	−0.6	× 2059 / 14113	−0.1
5	8,041	2511.8	− 2528	−16.2	× 2085 / 14113	−2.4
6	8,042	2543.8	− 2552	−8.2	× 2003 / 14113	−1.2
7	8,045	2554.9	− 2567	−12.1	× 2100 / 14113	−1.8
8	8,046	2578.7	− 2586	−7.3	× 2050 / 14113	−1.1
11	8,049	2608.9	− 2628	−19.1	× 1954 / 14113	−2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,054	2442.0	− 2436	6	× 1897 / 14511	0.8
4	8,057	2484.1	− 2485	−0.9	× 2003 / 14511	−0.1
5	8,058	2513.7	− 2528	−14.3	× 2171 / 14511	−2.1
6	8,061	2539.4	− 2552	−12.6	× 2177 / 14511	−1.9
7	8,062	2560.0	− 2567	−7	× 2118 / 14511	−1
8	8,065	2575.1	− 2586	−10.9	× 2167 / 14511	−1.6
11	8,066	2598.5	− 2628	−29.5	× 1978 / 14511	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,110	2448.7	− 2436	12.7	× 1989 / 14640	1.7
4	8,111	2483.9	− 2485	−1.1	× 1953 / 14640	−0.1
5	8,112	2513.5	− 2528	−14.5	× 2071 / 14640	−2.1
6	8,113	2540.9	− 2552	−11.1	× 2238 / 14640	−1.7
7	8,114	2556.2	− 2567	−10.8	× 2241 / 14640	−1.7
8	8,115	2577.1	− 2586	−8.9	× 2136 / 14640	−1.3
11	8,116	2601.1	− 2628	−26.9	× 2012 / 14640	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,924	2445.5	− 2436	9.5	× 839 / 6613	1.2
4	7,925	2481.4	− 2485	−3.6	× 864 / 6613	−0.5
5	7,926	2503.3	− 2528	−24.7	× 879 / 6613	−3.3
6	7,927	2518.3	− 2552	−33.7	× 918 / 6613	−4.7
7	7,928	2537.4	− 2567	−29.6	× 975 / 6613	−4.4
8	7,929	2551.0	− 2586	−35	× 965 / 6613	−5.1
11	7,930	2599.8	− 2628	−28.2	× 1173 / 6613	−5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,031	2443.7	− 2436	7.7	× 2201 / 15469	1.1
4	8,032	2482.1	− 2485	−2.9	× 2130 / 15469	−0.4
5	8,033	2501.6	− 2528	−26.4	× 2248 / 15469	−3.8
6	8,034	2525.8	− 2552	−26.2	× 2212 / 15469	−3.7
7	8,035	2535.6	− 2567	−31.4	× 2212 / 15469	−4.5
8	8,036	2547.6	− 2586	−38.4	× 2306 / 15469	−5.7
11	8,037	2573.2	− 2628	−54.8	× 2160 / 15469	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,015	2442.6	− 2436	6.6	× 2251 / 15946	0.9
4	8,016	2482.2	− 2485	−2.8	× 2282 / 15946	−0.4
5	8,017	2502.6	− 2528	−25.4	× 2240 / 15946	−3.6
6	8,018	2523.4	− 2552	−28.6	× 2324 / 15946	−4.2
7	8,019	2539.3	− 2567	−27.7	× 2286 / 15946	−4
8	8,020	2548.4	− 2586	−37.6	× 2263 / 15946	−5.3
11	8,021	2579.7	− 2628	−48.3	× 2300 / 15946	−7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,959	2438.4	− 2436	2.4	× 2217 / 16111	0.3
4	7,960	2480.0	− 2485	−5	× 2315 / 16111	−0.7
5	7,961	2501.1	− 2528	−26.9	× 2328 / 16111	−3.9
6	7,962	2526.8	− 2552	−25.2	× 2276 / 16111	−3.6
7	7,963	2543.8	− 2567	−23.2	× 2378 / 16111	−3.4
8	7,964	2556.0	− 2586	−30	× 2319 / 16111	−4.3
11	7,965	2588.5	− 2628	−39.5	× 2278 / 16111	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,914	2438.7	− 2436	2.7	× 2332 / 16206	0.4
4	7,915	2482.8	− 2485	−2.2	× 2273 / 16206	−0.3
5	7,916	2505.3	− 2528	−22.7	× 2321 / 16206	−3.3
6	7,917	2531.2	− 2552	−20.8	× 2402 / 16206	−3.1
7	7,918	2553.1	− 2567	−13.9	× 2297 / 16206	−2
8	7,919	2566.7	− 2586	−19.3	× 2368 / 16206	−2.8
11	7,920	2594.7	− 2628	−33.3	× 2213 / 16206	−4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,920	2442.3	− 2436	6.3	× 2236 / 16115	0.9
4	7,921	2476.5	− 2485	−8.5	× 2373 / 16115	−1.3
5	7,922	2505.0	− 2528	−23	× 2283 / 16115	−3.3
6	7,923	2529.7	− 2552	−22.3	× 2360 / 16115	−3.3
7	7,924	2552.1	− 2567	−14.9	× 2421 / 16115	−2.2
8	7,925	2580.6	− 2586	−5.4	× 2274 / 16115	−0.8
11	7,926	2600.4	− 2628	−27.6	× 2168 / 16115	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −12, −7, −8, −10, −9, −22, −25, −23, −21, −16, −14 → −15.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2021: 13 · 2021→2022: 3 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 5 · 2025→2026: 2 → average 3.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 3.6 × 2.66 = 9.6. Upper limit −5.6, lower limit −24.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a county, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.