Gold Oak Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,979	2416.5	− 2436	−19.5	× 55 / 287	−3.7
4	8,980	2459.9	− 2485	−25.1	× 44 / 287	−3.8
5	8,983	2504.2	− 2528	−23.8	× 47 / 287	−3.9
6	8,985	2527.5	− 2552	−24.5	× 47 / 287	−4
7	8,986	2541.9	− 2567	−25.1	× 50 / 287	−4.4
8	8,989	2580.4	− 2586	−5.6	× 44 / 287	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,066	2414.9	− 2436	−21.1	× 46 / 305	−3.2
4	8,069	2469.8	− 2485	−15.2	× 56 / 305	−2.8
5	8,070	2457.0	− 2528	−71	× 46 / 305	−10.7
6	8,073	2496.8	− 2552	−55.2	× 54 / 305	−9.8
7	8,075	2561.5	− 2567	−5.5	× 52 / 305	−0.9
8	8,076	2577.9	− 2586	−8.1	× 51 / 305	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,333	2439.0	− 2436	3	× 52 / 313	0.5
4	8,334	2452.4	− 2485	−32.6	× 48 / 313	−5
5	8,337	2498.8	− 2528	−29.2	× 61 / 313	−5.7
6	8,339	2492.9	− 2552	−59.1	× 48 / 313	−9.1
7	8,341	2529.4	− 2567	−37.6	× 55 / 313	−6.6
8	8,343	2592.0	− 2586	6	× 49 / 313	0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,365	2402.0	− 2436	−34	× 63 / 308	−7
4	8,366	2488.1	− 2485	3.1	× 51 / 308	0.5
5	8,369	2506.1	− 2528	−21.9	× 49 / 308	−3.5
6	8,370	2505.4	− 2552	−46.6	× 53 / 308	−8
7	8,373	2535.8	− 2567	−31.2	× 44 / 308	−4.5
8	8,374	2559.0	− 2586	−27	× 48 / 308	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,417	2423.6	− 2436	−12.4	× 47 / 307	−1.9
4	8,418	2475.4	− 2485	−9.6	× 58 / 307	−1.8
5	8,419	2505.1	− 2528	−22.9	× 47 / 307	−3.5
6	8,420	2517.3	− 2552	−34.7	× 48 / 307	−5.4
7	8,421	2533.1	− 2567	−33.9	× 60 / 307	−6.6
8	8,422	2564.0	− 2586	−22	× 47 / 307	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,241	2412.2	− 2436	−23.8	× 43 / 276	−3.7
4	8,242	2449.4	− 2485	−35.6	× 51 / 276	−6.6
5	8,243	2468.4	− 2528	−59.6	× 43 / 276	−9.3
6	8,244	2444.8	− 2552	−107.2	× 49 / 276	−19
7	8,245	2488.6	− 2567	−78.4	× 49 / 276	−13.9
8	8,246	2518.3	− 2586	−67.7	× 41 / 276	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,360	2395.6	− 2436	−40.4	× 39 / 283	−5.6
4	8,361	2465.7	− 2485	−19.3	× 44 / 283	−3
5	8,362	2476.9	− 2528	−51.1	× 51 / 283	−9.2
6	8,363	2480.5	− 2552	−71.5	× 47 / 283	−11.9
7	8,364	2487.9	− 2567	−79.1	× 51 / 283	−14.3
8	8,365	2545.4	− 2586	−40.6	× 51 / 283	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,344	2425.2	− 2436	−10.8	× 43 / 279	−1.7
4	8,345	2451.3	− 2485	−33.7	× 39 / 279	−4.7
5	8,346	2463.4	− 2528	−64.6	× 50 / 279	−11.6
6	8,347	2474.3	− 2552	−77.7	× 57 / 279	−15.9
7	8,348	2475.4	− 2567	−91.6	× 43 / 279	−14.1
8	8,349	2482.9	− 2586	−103.1	× 47 / 279	−17.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,288	2407.0	− 2436	−29	× 43 / 271	−4.6
4	8,289	2470.2	− 2485	−14.8	× 40 / 271	−2.2
5	8,290	2430.5	− 2528	−97.5	× 45 / 271	−16.2
6	8,291	2466.9	− 2552	−85.1	× 47 / 271	−14.8
7	8,292	2483.0	− 2567	−84	× 50 / 271	−15.5
8	8,293	2488.6	− 2586	−97.4	× 46 / 271	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,243	2383.5	− 2436	−52.5	× 50 / 239	−11
4	8,244	2451.1	− 2485	−33.9	× 41 / 239	−5.8
5	8,245	2442.3	− 2528	−85.7	× 38 / 239	−13.6
6	8,246	2467.7	− 2552	−84.3	× 32 / 239	−11.3
7	8,247	2443.8	− 2567	−123.2	× 36 / 239	−18.6
8	8,248	2448.1	− 2586	−137.9	× 42 / 239	−24.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,255	2381.4	− 2436	−54.6	× 43 / 216	−10.9
4	8,256	2440.0	− 2485	−45	× 44 / 216	−9.2
5	8,257	2418.7	− 2528	−109.3	× 37 / 216	−18.7
6	8,258	2458.5	− 2552	−93.5	× 32 / 216	−13.9
7	8,259	2483.5	− 2567	−83.5	× 30 / 216	−11.6
8	8,260	2525.9	− 2586	−60.1	× 30 / 216	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −21, −29, −25, −27, −23, −63, −51, −65, −70, −85, −73 → −48.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2021: 40 · 2021→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 15 · 2025→2026: 12 → average 11.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.6 × 2.66 = 30.9. Upper limit −17.5, lower limit −79.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Gold Oak Union Elementary