Winters Joint Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	105,541	2396.0	− 2436	−40	× 97 / 785	−4.9
4	105,544	2454.4	− 2485	−30.6	× 119 / 785	−4.6
5	105,545	2464.3	− 2528	−63.7	× 119 / 785	−9.7
6	105,548	2476.7	− 2552	−75.3	× 119 / 785	−11.4
7	105,549	2474.2	− 2567	−92.8	× 115 / 785	−13.6
8	105,552	2467.2	− 2586	−118.8	× 118 / 785	−17.9
11	105,553	2543.1	− 2628	−84.9	× 98 / 785	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,050	2435.8	− 2436	−0.2	× 95 / 775	0
4	98,052	2439.2	− 2485	−45.8	× 108 / 775	−6.4
5	98,053	2470.8	− 2528	−57.2	× 122 / 775	−9
6	98,055	2467.3	− 2552	−84.7	× 116 / 775	−12.7
7	98,057	2503.0	− 2567	−64	× 118 / 775	−9.7
8	98,060	2477.1	− 2586	−108.9	× 113 / 775	−15.9
11	98,061	2542.2	− 2628	−85.8	× 103 / 775	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	100,915	2432.7	− 2436	−3.3	× 104 / 780	−0.4
4	100,917	2459.3	− 2485	−25.7	× 95 / 780	−3.1
5	100,919	2457.6	− 2528	−70.4	× 110 / 780	−9.9
6	100,920	2478.9	− 2552	−73.1	× 122 / 780	−11.4
7	100,923	2475.9	− 2567	−91.1	× 115 / 780	−13.4
8	100,924	2511.2	− 2586	−74.8	× 123 / 780	−11.8
11	100,927	2562.0	− 2628	−66	× 111 / 780	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,070	2413.0	− 2436	−23	× 95 / 759	−2.9
4	101,071	2464.6	− 2485	−20.4	× 103 / 759	−2.8
5	101,074	2477.9	− 2528	−50.1	× 97 / 759	−6.4
6	101,075	2451.2	− 2552	−100.8	× 107 / 759	−14.2
7	101,078	2495.1	− 2567	−71.9	× 133 / 759	−12.6
8	101,079	2492.2	− 2586	−93.8	× 115 / 759	−14.2
11	101,082	2539.2	− 2628	−88.8	× 109 / 759	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,718	2417.4	− 2436	−18.6	× 127 / 772	−3.1
4	101,719	2452.9	− 2485	−32.1	× 97 / 772	−4
5	101,720	2485.3	− 2528	−42.7	× 99 / 772	−5.5
6	101,721	2484.2	− 2552	−67.8	× 98 / 772	−8.6
7	101,722	2476.3	− 2567	−90.7	× 108 / 772	−12.7
8	101,723	2501.1	− 2586	−84.9	× 136 / 772	−15
11	101,724	2514.8	− 2628	−113.2	× 107 / 772	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	99,585	2526.8	− 2628	−101.2	× 96 / 96	−101.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,995	2415.8	− 2436	−20.2	× 122 / 789	−3.1
4	101,996	2451.6	− 2485	−33.4	× 104 / 789	−4.4
5	101,997	2446.4	− 2528	−81.6	× 108 / 789	−11.2
6	101,998	2459.7	− 2552	−92.3	× 114 / 789	−13.3
7	101,999	2459.7	− 2567	−107.3	× 97 / 789	−13.2
8	102,000	2498.8	− 2586	−87.2	× 103 / 789	−11.4
11	102,001	2482.4	− 2628	−145.6	× 141 / 789	−26
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,815	2398.5	− 2436	−37.5	× 116 / 772	−5.6
4	101,816	2453.4	− 2485	−31.6	× 127 / 772	−5.2
5	101,817	2465.9	− 2528	−62.1	× 100 / 772	−8
6	101,818	2420.7	− 2552	−131.3	× 115 / 772	−19.6
7	101,819	2497.8	− 2567	−69.2	× 123 / 772	−11
8	101,820	2455.9	− 2586	−130.1	× 93 / 772	−15.7
11	101,821	2493.0	− 2628	−135	× 98 / 772	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,702	2392.9	− 2436	−43.1	× 106 / 769	−5.9
4	101,703	2441.2	− 2485	−43.8	× 116 / 769	−6.6
5	101,704	2468.7	− 2528	−59.3	× 126 / 769	−9.7
6	101,705	2432.8	− 2552	−119.2	× 101 / 769	−15.7
7	101,706	2449.3	− 2567	−117.7	× 101 / 769	−15.5
8	101,707	2484.6	− 2586	−101.4	× 114 / 769	−15
11	101,708	2534.2	− 2628	−93.8	× 105 / 769	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	101,368	2403.5	− 2436	−32.5	× 118 / 781	−4.9
4	101,369	2428.1	− 2485	−56.9	× 107 / 781	−7.8
5	101,370	2463.3	− 2528	−64.7	× 111 / 781	−9.2
6	101,371	2466.4	− 2552	−85.6	× 129 / 781	−14.1
7	101,372	2485.5	− 2567	−81.5	× 102 / 781	−10.6
8	101,373	2448.2	− 2586	−137.8	× 105 / 781	−18.5
11	101,374	2529.8	− 2628	−98.2	× 109 / 781	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −73, −65, −60, −66, −65, −101, −83, −82, −81, −79 → −75.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2021: 36 · 2021→2022: 18 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 8.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.7 × 2.66 = 23.1. Upper limit −52.4, lower limit −98.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.