Thurgood Marshall Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	103,443	2375.2	− 2436	−60.8	× 93 / 286	−19.8
4	103,446	2421.6	− 2485	−63.4	× 97 / 286	−21.5
5	103,447	2472.1	− 2528	−55.9	× 96 / 286	−18.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,130	2388.0	− 2436	−48	× 76 / 272	−13.4
4	96,132	2447.7	− 2485	−37.3	× 94 / 272	−12.9
5	96,133	2476.6	− 2528	−51.4	× 102 / 272	−19.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,905	2384.0	− 2436	−52	× 67 / 236	−14.8
4	98,907	2441.3	− 2485	−43.7	× 76 / 236	−14.1
5	98,908	2481.8	− 2528	−46.2	× 93 / 236	−18.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,064	2409.7	− 2436	−26.3	× 86 / 220	−10.3
4	99,065	2433.2	− 2485	−51.8	× 64 / 220	−15.1
5	99,068	2450.5	− 2528	−77.5	× 70 / 220	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,727	2413.1	− 2436	−22.9	× 98 / 315	−7.1
4	99,728	2451.6	− 2485	−33.4	× 86 / 315	−9.1
5	99,729	2469.2	− 2528	−58.8	× 65 / 315	−12.1
6	99,730	2477.9	− 2552	−74.1	× 66 / 315	−15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,934	2394.1	− 2436	−41.9	× 71 / 543	−5.5
4	99,935	2441.5	− 2485	−43.5	× 93 / 543	−7.5
5	99,936	2427.9	− 2528	−100.1	× 90 / 543	−16.6
6	99,937	2463.3	− 2552	−88.7	× 100 / 543	−16.3
7	99,938	2450.8	− 2567	−116.2	× 92 / 543	−19.7
8	99,939	2461.2	− 2586	−124.8	× 97 / 543	−22.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,772	2424.9	− 2436	−11.1	× 73 / 508	−1.6
4	99,773	2436.5	− 2485	−48.5	× 67 / 508	−6.4
5	99,774	2500.7	− 2528	−27.3	× 93 / 508	−5
6	99,775	2434.8	− 2552	−117.2	× 87 / 508	−20.1
7	99,776	2452.0	− 2567	−115	× 102 / 508	−23.1
8	99,777	2443.7	− 2586	−142.3	× 86 / 508	−24.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,655	2436.2	− 2436	0.2	× 67 / 458	0
4	99,656	2478.5	− 2485	−6.5	× 69 / 458	−1
5	99,657	2499.4	− 2528	−28.6	× 60 / 458	−3.7
6	99,658	2469.8	− 2552	−82.2	× 89 / 458	−16
7	99,659	2443.6	− 2567	−123.4	× 84 / 458	−22.6
8	99,660	2445.8	− 2586	−140.2	× 89 / 458	−27.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,361	2416.9	− 2436	−19.1	× 69 / 485	−2.7
4	99,362	2481.7	− 2485	−3.3	× 76 / 485	−0.5
5	99,363	2520.8	− 2528	−7.2	× 74 / 485	−1.1
6	99,364	2486.3	− 2552	−65.7	× 99 / 485	−13.4
7	99,365	2509.4	− 2567	−57.6	× 93 / 485	−11
8	99,366	2451.9	− 2586	−134.1	× 74 / 485	−20.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −60, −46, −47, −50, −44, −88, −80, −71, −49 → −59.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2022: 44 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 22 → average 13.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.4 × 2.66 = 35.6. Upper limit −23.8, lower limit −95.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.