Juan Lagunas Soria Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	103,452	2380.0	− 2436	−56	× 141 / 727	−10.9
4	103,453	2389.7	− 2485	−95.3	× 137 / 727	−18
5	103,456	2437.8	− 2528	−90.2	× 119 / 727	−14.8
6	103,457	2464.6	− 2552	−87.4	× 105 / 727	−12.6
7	103,460	2483.2	− 2567	−83.8	× 117 / 727	−13.5
8	103,461	2507.3	− 2586	−78.7	× 108 / 727	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,138	2393.4	− 2436	−42.6	× 113 / 731	−6.6
4	96,140	2423.2	− 2485	−61.8	× 144 / 731	−12.2
5	96,142	2448.0	− 2528	−80	× 141 / 731	−15.4
6	96,144	2489.9	− 2552	−62.1	× 110 / 731	−9.3
7	96,146	2485.7	− 2567	−81.3	× 108 / 731	−12
8	96,148	2498.1	− 2586	−87.9	× 115 / 731	−13.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,913	2398.5	− 2436	−37.5	× 113 / 740	−5.7
4	98,914	2420.6	− 2485	−64.4	× 117 / 740	−10.2
5	98,917	2440.5	− 2528	−87.5	× 147 / 740	−17.4
6	98,919	2493.1	− 2552	−58.9	× 143 / 740	−11.4
7	98,920	2471.6	− 2567	−95.4	× 108 / 740	−13.9
8	98,922	2498.3	− 2586	−87.7	× 112 / 740	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,071	2405.4	− 2436	−30.6	× 89 / 717	−3.8
4	99,074	2443.7	− 2485	−41.3	× 114 / 717	−6.6
5	99,075	2446.5	− 2528	−81.5	× 118 / 717	−13.4
6	99,078	2496.3	− 2552	−55.7	× 143 / 717	−11.1
7	99,079	2468.4	− 2567	−98.6	× 146 / 717	−20.1
8	99,082	2500.4	− 2586	−85.6	× 107 / 717	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,739	2412.0	− 2436	−24	× 112 / 710	−3.8
4	99,740	2451.2	− 2485	−33.8	× 95 / 710	−4.5
5	99,741	2453.4	− 2528	−74.6	× 111 / 710	−11.7
6	99,742	2493.0	− 2552	−59	× 126 / 710	−10.5
7	99,743	2459.5	− 2567	−107.5	× 131 / 710	−19.8
8	99,744	2506.6	− 2586	−79.4	× 135 / 710	−15.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,948	2410.6	− 2436	−25.4	× 86 / 631	−3.5
4	99,949	2427.7	− 2485	−57.3	× 102 / 631	−9.3
5	99,950	2456.5	− 2528	−71.5	× 109 / 631	−12.4
6	99,951	2502.6	− 2552	−49.4	× 128 / 631	−10
7	99,952	2481.3	− 2567	−85.7	× 105 / 631	−14.3
8	99,953	2461.4	− 2586	−124.6	× 101 / 631	−19.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,786	2409.2	− 2436	−26.8	× 88 / 602	−3.9
4	99,787	2429.6	− 2485	−55.4	× 93 / 602	−8.6
5	99,788	2446.1	− 2528	−81.9	× 99 / 602	−13.5
6	99,789	2483.4	− 2552	−68.6	× 107 / 602	−12.2
7	99,790	2492.5	− 2567	−74.5	× 120 / 602	−14.9
8	99,791	2496.4	− 2586	−89.6	× 95 / 602	−14.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,669	2388.0	− 2436	−48	× 91 / 578	−7.6
4	99,670	2444.4	− 2485	−40.6	× 97 / 578	−6.8
5	99,671	2453.7	− 2528	−74.3	× 95 / 578	−12.2
6	99,672	2491.4	− 2552	−60.6	× 102 / 578	−10.7
7	99,673	2481.2	− 2567	−85.8	× 93 / 578	−13.8
8	99,674	2534.1	− 2586	−51.9	× 100 / 578	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,375	2405.7	− 2436	−30.3	× 90 / 646	−4.2
4	99,376	2423.8	− 2485	−61.2	× 110 / 646	−10.4
5	99,377	2456.3	− 2528	−71.7	× 105 / 646	−11.7
6	99,378	2481.5	− 2552	−70.5	× 117 / 646	−12.8
7	99,379	2484.0	− 2567	−83	× 109 / 646	−14
8	99,380	2502.1	− 2586	−83.9	× 115 / 646	−14.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −81, −69, −72, −68, −65, −69, −67, −60, −68 → −68.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 4 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 5.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.4 × 2.66 = 14.4. Upper limit −54.4, lower limit −83.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.