Mesa Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	103,210	2442.5	− 2436	6.5	× 74 / 415	1.2
4	103,211	2488.7	− 2485	3.7	× 70 / 415	0.6
5	103,214	2526.5	− 2528	−1.5	× 68 / 415	−0.2
6	103,215	2543.0	− 2552	−9	× 69 / 415	−1.5
7	103,218	2572.8	− 2567	5.8	× 66 / 415	0.9
8	103,219	2599.6	− 2586	13.6	× 68 / 415	2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,900	2437.5	− 2436	1.5	× 67 / 407	0.2
4	95,901	2497.5	− 2485	12.5	× 76 / 407	2.3
5	95,903	2509.8	− 2528	−18.2	× 70 / 407	−3.1
6	95,906	2525.5	− 2552	−26.5	× 65 / 407	−4.2
7	95,907	2566.8	− 2567	−0.2	× 64 / 407	0
8	95,910	2605.5	− 2586	19.5	× 65 / 407	3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,679	2430.8	− 2436	−5.2	× 74 / 411	−0.9
4	98,681	2474.8	− 2485	−10.2	× 72 / 411	−1.8
5	98,683	2530.4	− 2528	2.4	× 73 / 411	0.4
6	98,684	2531.1	− 2552	−20.9	× 70 / 411	−3.6
7	98,686	2568.8	− 2567	1.8	× 60 / 411	0.3
8	98,688	2586.0	− 2586	0	× 62 / 411	0
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,856	2447.9	− 2436	11.9	× 63 / 407	1.8
4	98,857	2481.5	− 2485	−3.5	× 74 / 407	−0.6
5	98,860	2512.8	− 2528	−15.2	× 71 / 407	−2.7
6	98,861	2548.6	− 2552	−3.4	× 71 / 407	−0.6
7	98,864	2548.0	− 2567	−19	× 67 / 407	−3.1
8	98,865	2561.5	− 2586	−24.5	× 61 / 407	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,537	2434.9	− 2436	−1.1	× 53 / 389	−0.1
4	99,538	2486.4	− 2485	1.4	× 64 / 389	0.2
5	99,539	2522.8	− 2528	−5.2	× 74 / 389	−1
6	99,540	2534.2	− 2552	−17.8	× 68 / 389	−3.1
7	99,541	2570.2	− 2567	3.2	× 65 / 389	0.5
8	99,542	2578.7	− 2586	−7.3	× 65 / 389	−1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,728	2404.9	− 2436	−31.1	× 65 / 360	−5.6
4	99,729	2464.4	− 2485	−20.6	× 68 / 360	−3.9
5	99,730	2478.1	− 2528	−49.9	× 63 / 360	−8.7
6	99,731	2533.7	− 2552	−18.3	× 48 / 360	−2.4
7	99,732	2533.2	− 2567	−33.8	× 52 / 360	−4.9
8	99,733	2554.3	− 2586	−31.7	× 64 / 360	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,562	2397.8	− 2436	−38.2	× 70 / 375	−7.1
4	99,563	2447.1	− 2485	−37.9	× 69 / 375	−7
5	99,564	2492.4	− 2528	−35.6	× 67 / 375	−6.4
6	99,565	2517.4	− 2552	−34.6	× 66 / 375	−6.1
7	99,566	2531.3	− 2567	−35.7	× 56 / 375	−5.3
8	99,567	2564.7	− 2586	−21.3	× 47 / 375	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,469	2424.5	− 2436	−11.5	× 64 / 391	−1.9
4	99,470	2435.3	− 2485	−49.7	× 72 / 391	−9.2
5	99,471	2481.6	− 2528	−46.4	× 68 / 391	−8.1
6	99,472	2504.9	− 2552	−47.1	× 67 / 391	−8.1
7	99,473	2532.0	− 2567	−35	× 65 / 391	−5.8
8	99,474	2561.9	− 2586	−24.1	× 55 / 391	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,167	2446.2	− 2436	10.2	× 64 / 409	1.6
4	99,168	2443.7	− 2485	−41.3	× 69 / 409	−7
5	99,169	2455.6	− 2528	−72.4	× 70 / 409	−12.4
6	99,170	2535.2	− 2552	−16.8	× 79 / 409	−3.2
7	99,171	2540.8	− 2567	−26.2	× 66 / 409	−4.2
8	99,172	2565.3	− 2586	−20.7	× 61 / 409	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 3, −2, −6, −9, −5, −31, −35, −36, −28 → −16.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 6.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.9 × 2.66 = 18.4. Upper limit 1.8, lower limit −35.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.