Fillmore Middle: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	103,042	2456.3	− 2552	−95.7	× 288 / 841	−32.8
7	103,043	2484.1	− 2567	−82.9	× 264 / 841	−26
8	103,046	2493.4	− 2586	−92.6	× 289 / 841	−31.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	95,752	2451.0	− 2552	−101	× 269 / 828	−32.8
7	95,753	2448.3	− 2567	−118.7	× 287 / 828	−41.1
8	95,755	2502.3	− 2586	−83.7	× 272 / 828	−27.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	98,532	2449.5	− 2552	−102.5	× 299 / 855	−35.8
7	98,534	2473.5	− 2567	−93.5	× 264 / 855	−28.9
8	98,537	2459.4	− 2586	−126.6	× 292 / 855	−43.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	98,710	2468.1	− 2552	−83.9	× 282 / 815	−29
7	98,711	2463.7	− 2567	−103.3	× 274 / 815	−34.7
8	98,714	2498.2	− 2586	−87.8	× 259 / 815	−27.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	99,388	2453.3	− 2552	−98.7	× 284 / 844	−33.2
7	99,389	2460.1	− 2567	−106.9	× 283 / 844	−35.8
8	99,390	2487.5	− 2586	−98.5	× 277 / 844	−32.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	99,567	2432.4	− 2552	−119.6	× 268 / 783	−40.9
7	99,568	2452.8	− 2567	−114.2	× 252 / 783	−36.8
8	99,569	2449.9	− 2586	−136.1	× 263 / 783	−45.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−123

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	99,405	2445.0	− 2552	−107	× 262 / 778	−36
7	99,406	2451.5	− 2567	−115.5	× 262 / 778	−38.9
8	99,407	2467.1	− 2586	−118.9	× 254 / 778	−38.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	99,308	2451.4	− 2552	−100.6	× 246 / 765	−32.3
7	99,309	2448.2	− 2567	−118.8	× 265 / 765	−41.2
8	99,310	2454.6	− 2586	−131.4	× 254 / 765	−43.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	99,008	2450.7	− 2552	−101.3	× 244 / 764	−32.4
7	99,009	2453.4	− 2567	−113.6	× 251 / 764	−37.3
8	99,010	2459.9	− 2586	−126.1	× 269 / 764	−44.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −91, −101, −108, −92, −101, −123, −114, −117, −114 → −106.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 16 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 22 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 9.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.9 × 2.66 = 26.3. Upper limit −80.5, lower limit −133.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.