Douglas City Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,786	2484.1	− 2436	48.1	× 24 / 125	9.2
4	99,789	2510.5	− 2485	25.5	× 23 / 125	4.7
5	99,790	2529.1	− 2528	1.1	× 21 / 125	0.2
6	99,793	2571.2	− 2552	19.2	× 25 / 125	3.8
7	99,794	2606.0	− 2567	39	× 19 / 125	5.9
8	99,797	2592.0	− 2586	6	× 13 / 125	0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						25

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,528	2470.6	− 2436	34.6	× 23 / 130	6.1
4	92,531	2522.5	− 2485	37.5	× 22 / 130	6.3
5	92,532	2567.0	− 2528	39	× 23 / 130	6.9
6	92,534	2570.5	− 2552	18.5	× 20 / 130	2.8
7	92,537	2609.3	− 2567	42.3	× 24 / 130	7.8
8	92,539	2660.2	− 2586	74.2	× 18 / 130	10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						40

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,303	2497.5	− 2436	61.5	× 19 / 132	8.9
4	95,305	2500.9	− 2485	15.9	× 21 / 132	2.5
5	95,307	2571.0	− 2528	43	× 23 / 132	7.5
6	95,308	2584.0	− 2552	32	× 26 / 132	6.3
7	95,310	2587.0	− 2567	20	× 21 / 132	3.2
8	95,312	2639.1	− 2586	53.1	× 22 / 132	8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						37

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,458	2506.4	− 2436	70.4	× 14 / 115	8.6
4	95,461	2529.1	− 2485	44.1	× 20 / 115	7.7
5	95,462	2522.2	− 2528	−5.8	× 15 / 115	−0.8
6	95,465	2603.8	− 2552	51.8	× 22 / 115	9.9
7	95,466	2605.6	− 2567	38.6	× 25 / 115	8.4
8	95,469	2630.4	− 2586	44.4	× 19 / 115	7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						41

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,142	2477.5	− 2436	41.5	× 26 / 119	9.1
4	96,143	2558.4	− 2485	73.4	× 15 / 119	9.3
5	96,144	2577.9	− 2528	49.9	× 19 / 119	8
6	96,145	2544.9	− 2552	−7.1	× 14 / 119	−0.8
7	96,146	2639.3	− 2567	72.3	× 22 / 119	13.4
8	96,147	2640.5	− 2586	54.5	× 23 / 119	10.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						49

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,043	2480.3	− 2436	44.3	× 18 / 109	7.3
4	94,044	2502.2	− 2485	17.2	× 20 / 109	3.2
5	94,045	2562.4	− 2528	34.4	× 25 / 109	7.9
6	94,046	2621.4	− 2552	69.4	× 16 / 109	10.2
7	94,047	2605.3	− 2567	38.3	× 16 / 109	5.6
8	94,048	2572.1	− 2586	−13.9	× 14 / 109	−1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						32

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,310	2478.9	− 2436	42.9	× 18 / 110	7
4	96,311	2494.7	− 2485	9.7	× 18 / 110	1.6
5	96,312	2544.5	− 2528	16.5	× 21 / 110	3.2
6	96,313	2598.2	− 2552	46.2	× 22 / 110	9.2
7	96,314	2632.8	− 2567	65.8	× 16 / 110	9.6
8	96,315	2630.1	− 2586	44.1	× 15 / 110	6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						37

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,161	2457.6	− 2436	21.6	× 14 / 109	2.8
4	96,162	2494.5	− 2485	9.5	× 22 / 109	1.9
5	96,163	2559.4	− 2528	31.4	× 15 / 109	4.3
6	96,164	2562.4	− 2552	10.4	× 21 / 109	2
7	96,165	2589.0	− 2567	22	× 21 / 109	4.2
8	96,166	2633.5	− 2586	47.5	× 16 / 109	7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						22

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,031	2473.6	− 2436	37.6	× 21 / 116	6.8
4	96,032	2525.8	− 2485	40.8	× 16 / 116	5.6
5	96,033	2536.9	− 2528	8.9	× 20 / 116	1.5
6	96,034	2574.2	− 2552	22.2	× 17 / 116	3.3
7	96,035	2596.6	− 2567	29.6	× 20 / 116	5.1
8	96,036	2633.6	− 2586	47.6	× 22 / 116	9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						31

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,775	2468.8	− 2436	32.8	× 19 / 110	5.7
4	95,776	2477.9	− 2485	−7.1	× 24 / 110	−1.5
5	95,777	2548.2	− 2528	20.2	× 14 / 110	2.6
6	95,778	2569.3	− 2552	17.3	× 18 / 110	2.8
7	95,779	2572.6	− 2567	5.6	× 16 / 110	0.8
8	95,780	2637.9	− 2586	51.9	× 19 / 110	9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						19

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 25, 40, 37, 41, 49, 32, 37, 22, 31, 19 → 33.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 15 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2021: 17 · 2021→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 9.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.8 × 2.66 = 26.1. Upper limit 59.4, lower limit 7.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Schools in Douglas City Elementary

Douglas City Elementary