Wakefield Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,350	2390.2	− 2436	−45.8	× 102 / 342	−13.7
4	98,353	2401.1	− 2485	−83.9	× 90 / 342	−22.1
5	98,354	2421.9	− 2528	−106.1	× 74 / 342	−23
6	98,356	2435.1	− 2552	−116.9	× 76 / 342	−26
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,122	2390.5	− 2436	−45.5	× 85 / 357	−10.8
4	91,124	2408.9	− 2485	−76.1	× 97 / 357	−20.7
5	91,127	2421.2	− 2528	−106.8	× 94 / 357	−28.1
6	91,128	2410.1	− 2552	−141.9	× 81 / 357	−32.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,883	2370.1	− 2436	−65.9	× 84 / 352	−15.7
4	93,884	2384.6	− 2485	−100.4	× 78 / 352	−22.2
5	93,887	2449.1	− 2528	−78.9	× 98 / 352	−22
6	93,888	2418.6	− 2552	−133.4	× 92 / 352	−34.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,095	2363.6	− 2436	−72.4	× 77 / 336	−16.6
4	94,098	2398.4	− 2485	−86.6	× 77 / 336	−19.8
5	94,099	2437.6	− 2528	−90.4	× 83 / 336	−22.3
6	94,102	2429.0	− 2552	−123	× 99 / 336	−36.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,720	2378.2	− 2436	−57.8	× 73 / 303	−13.9
4	94,721	2381.8	− 2485	−103.2	× 73 / 303	−24.9
5	94,722	2450.3	− 2528	−77.7	× 77 / 303	−19.7
6	94,723	2416.1	− 2552	−135.9	× 80 / 303	−35.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,691	2333.4	− 2436	−102.6	× 88 / 286	−31.6
4	92,692	2372.6	− 2485	−112.4	× 69 / 286	−27.1
5	92,693	2416.4	− 2528	−111.6	× 63 / 286	−24.6
6	92,694	2401.5	− 2552	−150.5	× 66 / 286	−34.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−118

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,944	2347.3	− 2436	−88.7	× 85 / 326	−23.1
4	94,945	2385.5	− 2485	−99.5	× 97 / 326	−29.6
5	94,946	2465.1	− 2528	−62.9	× 71 / 326	−13.7
6	94,947	2396.3	− 2552	−155.7	× 73 / 326	−34.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,844	2339.3	− 2436	−96.7	× 93 / 303	−29.7
4	94,845	2389.3	− 2485	−95.7	× 87 / 303	−27.5
5	94,846	2439.5	− 2528	−88.5	× 97 / 303	−28.3
6	94,847	2380.7	− 2552	−171.3	× 26 / 303	−14.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,717	2344.2	− 2436	−91.8	× 96 / 297	−29.7
4	94,718	2389.6	− 2485	−95.4	× 92 / 297	−29.6
5	94,719	2456.8	− 2528	−71.2	× 82 / 297	−19.7
6	94,720	2411.9	− 2552	−140.1	× 27 / 297	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,447	2373.3	− 2436	−62.7	× 92 / 300	−19.2
4	94,448	2426.2	− 2485	−58.8	× 90 / 300	−17.6
5	94,449	2445.1	− 2528	−82.9	× 86 / 300	−23.8
6	94,450	2451.2	− 2552	−100.8	× 32 / 300	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −85, −92, −95, −95, −94, −118, −101, −100, −92, −71 → −94.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2021: 24 · 2021→2022: 17 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 21 → average 9.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.1 × 2.66 = 24.2. Upper limit −70.1, lower limit −118.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.