Mckinley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	94,693	2475.5	− 2485	−9.5	× 72 / 212	−3.2
5	94,694	2483.6	− 2528	−44.4	× 67 / 212	−14
6	94,697	2487.4	− 2552	−64.6	× 73 / 212	−22.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	87,950	2470.2	− 2485	−14.8	× 76 / 234	−4.8
5	87,951	2496.4	− 2528	−31.6	× 81 / 234	−10.9
6	87,954	2501.7	− 2552	−50.3	× 77 / 234	−16.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	90,489	2509.5	− 2485	24.5	× 57 / 206	6.8
5	90,491	2506.2	− 2528	−21.8	× 73 / 206	−7.7
6	90,492	2529.9	− 2552	−22.1	× 76 / 206	−8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	90,697	2529.3	− 2485	44.3	× 49 / 195	11.1
5	90,700	2523.0	− 2528	−5	× 61 / 195	−1.6
6	90,701	2544.4	− 2552	−7.6	× 85 / 195	−3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,328	2469.8	− 2436	33.8	× 28 / 200	4.7
4	91,329	2516.5	− 2485	31.5	× 51 / 200	8
5	91,330	2565.5	− 2528	37.5	× 60 / 200	11.3
6	91,331	2574.0	− 2552	22	× 61 / 200	6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						31

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,582	2415.2	− 2436	−20.8	× 51 / 222	−4.8
4	91,583	2493.0	− 2485	8	× 48 / 222	1.7
5	91,584	2533.7	− 2528	5.7	× 62 / 222	1.6
6	91,585	2594.0	− 2552	42	× 61 / 222	11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,472	2390.2	− 2436	−45.8	× 51 / 228	−10.2
4	91,473	2475.2	− 2485	−9.8	× 63 / 228	−2.7
5	91,474	2502.2	− 2528	−25.8	× 56 / 228	−6.3
6	91,475	2559.5	− 2552	7.5	× 58 / 228	1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,415	2398.0	− 2436	−38	× 48 / 224	−8.1
4	91,416	2436.5	− 2485	−48.5	× 55 / 224	−11.9
5	91,417	2500.9	− 2528	−27.1	× 64 / 224	−7.7
6	91,418	2550.3	− 2552	−1.7	× 57 / 224	−0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,113	2417.8	− 2436	−18.2	× 53 / 224	−4.3
4	91,114	2450.7	− 2485	−34.3	× 47 / 224	−7.2
5	91,115	2445.1	− 2528	−82.9	× 60 / 224	−22.2
6	91,116	2525.5	− 2552	−26.5	× 64 / 224	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −40, −32, −9, 6, 31, 10, −17, −28, −41 → −13.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 23 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 25 · 2019→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 27 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 13 → average 17.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 17.9 × 2.66 = 47.6. Upper limit 34.3, lower limit −60.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.