San Miguel Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,466	2442.6	− 2436	6.6	× 63 / 232	1.8
4	94,469	2501.0	− 2485	16	× 54 / 232	3.7
5	94,470	2492.2	− 2528	−35.8	× 55 / 232	−8.5
6	94,473	2513.1	− 2552	−38.9	× 60 / 232	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,714	2470.0	− 2436	34	× 65 / 243	9.1
4	87,716	2486.2	− 2485	1.2	× 62 / 243	0.3
5	87,718	2513.4	− 2528	−14.6	× 59 / 243	−3.5
6	87,720	2534.0	− 2552	−18	× 57 / 243	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,236	2471.2	− 2436	35.2	× 60 / 242	8.7
4	90,239	2505.7	− 2485	20.7	× 61 / 242	5.2
5	90,240	2507.4	− 2528	−20.6	× 61 / 242	−5.2
6	90,242	2545.4	− 2552	−6.6	× 60 / 242	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,442	2471.7	− 2436	35.7	× 58 / 230	9
4	90,443	2488.4	− 2485	3.4	× 57 / 230	0.8
5	90,446	2515.0	− 2528	−13	× 59 / 230	−3.3
6	90,447	2538.4	− 2552	−13.6	× 56 / 230	−3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,062	2459.3	− 2436	23.3	× 61 / 238	6
4	91,063	2500.6	− 2485	15.6	× 62 / 238	4.1
5	91,064	2509.4	− 2528	−18.6	× 62 / 238	−4.8
6	91,065	2568.1	− 2552	16.1	× 53 / 238	3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,128	2451.9	− 2436	15.9	× 42 / 180	3.7
4	89,129	2471.8	− 2485	−13.2	× 42 / 180	−3.1
5	89,130	2487.9	− 2528	−40.1	× 55 / 180	−12.3
6	89,131	2514.8	− 2552	−37.2	× 41 / 180	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,316	2455.3	− 2436	19.3	× 60 / 221	5.2
4	91,317	2459.7	− 2485	−25.3	× 52 / 221	−6
5	91,318	2488.5	− 2528	−39.5	× 53 / 221	−9.5
6	91,319	2519.0	− 2552	−33	× 56 / 221	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,212	2447.2	− 2436	11.2	× 54 / 220	2.7
4	91,213	2478.9	− 2485	−6.1	× 58 / 220	−1.6
5	91,214	2489.4	− 2528	−38.6	× 57 / 220	−10
6	91,215	2542.4	− 2552	−9.6	× 51 / 220	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,157	2460.1	− 2436	24.1	× 54 / 218	6
4	91,158	2477.4	− 2485	−7.6	× 53 / 218	−1.8
5	91,159	2476.5	− 2528	−51.5	× 56 / 218	−13.2
6	91,160	2541.9	− 2552	−10.1	× 55 / 218	−2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,857	2485.9	− 2436	49.9	× 63 / 224	14
4	90,858	2506.8	− 2485	21.8	× 55 / 224	5.4
5	90,859	2479.3	− 2528	−48.7	× 53 / 224	−11.5
6	90,860	2529.0	− 2552	−23	× 53 / 224	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −13, 2, 7, 3, 9, −20, −19, −11, −12, 2 → −5.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 15 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 29 · 2021→2022: 1 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 9.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.2 × 2.66 = 24.5. Upper limit 19.3, lower limit −29.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.