Cinnabar Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,050	2398.9	− 2436	−37.1	× 23 / 155	−5.5
4	94,053	2469.4	− 2485	−15.6	× 28 / 155	−2.8
5	94,054	2486.3	− 2528	−41.7	× 27 / 155	−7.3
6	94,057	2474.0	− 2552	−78	× 31 / 155	−15.6
7	94,058	2541.4	− 2567	−25.6	× 26 / 155	−4.3
8	94,061	2533.7	− 2586	−52.3	× 20 / 155	−6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,305	2418.0	− 2436	−18	× 28 / 153	−3.3
4	87,307	2461.3	− 2485	−23.7	× 23 / 153	−3.6
5	87,309	2464.9	− 2528	−63.1	× 30 / 153	−12.4
6	87,311	2490.9	− 2552	−61.1	× 28 / 153	−11.2
7	87,313	2493.2	− 2567	−73.8	× 19 / 153	−9.2
8	87,315	2548.2	− 2586	−37.8	× 25 / 153	−6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,790	2424.1	− 2436	−11.9	× 29 / 170	−2
4	89,792	2452.3	− 2485	−32.7	× 26 / 170	−5
5	89,794	2441.3	− 2528	−86.7	× 27 / 170	−13.8
6	89,797	2501.8	− 2552	−50.2	× 37 / 170	−10.9
7	89,798	2519.4	− 2567	−47.6	× 30 / 170	−8.4
8	89,801	2501.5	− 2586	−84.5	× 21 / 170	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,006	2424.4	− 2436	−11.6	× 38 / 182	−2.4
4	90,007	2462.7	− 2485	−22.3	× 28 / 182	−3.4
5	90,010	2472.7	− 2528	−55.3	× 29 / 182	−8.8
6	90,011	2455.8	− 2552	−96.2	× 31 / 182	−16.4
7	90,014	2488.6	− 2567	−78.4	× 31 / 182	−13.4
8	90,015	2521.4	− 2586	−64.6	× 25 / 182	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,620	2423.2	− 2436	−12.8	× 32 / 178	−2.3
4	90,621	2454.4	− 2485	−30.6	× 40 / 178	−6.9
5	90,622	2438.3	− 2528	−89.7	× 27 / 178	−13.6
6	90,623	2502.5	− 2552	−49.5	× 28 / 178	−7.8
7	90,624	2465.6	− 2567	−101.4	× 21 / 178	−12
8	90,625	2501.3	− 2586	−84.7	× 30 / 178	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,848	2395.6	− 2436	−40.4	× 21 / 152	−5.6
4	90,849	2432.8	− 2485	−52.2	× 25 / 152	−8.6
5	90,850	2449.6	− 2528	−78.4	× 26 / 152	−13.4
6	90,851	2499.7	− 2552	−52.3	× 29 / 152	−10
7	90,852	2493.2	− 2567	−73.8	× 27 / 152	−13.1
8	90,853	2476.8	− 2586	−109.2	× 24 / 152	−17.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,746	2402.2	− 2436	−33.8	× 20 / 137	−4.9
4	90,747	2440.7	− 2485	−44.3	× 21 / 137	−6.8
5	90,748	2452.4	− 2528	−75.6	× 27 / 137	−14.9
6	90,749	2486.1	− 2552	−65.9	× 28 / 137	−13.5
7	90,750	2514.4	− 2567	−52.6	× 13 / 137	−5
8	90,751	2481.5	− 2586	−104.5	× 28 / 137	−21.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,691	2391.4	− 2436	−44.6	× 25 / 116	−9.6
4	90,692	2428.5	− 2485	−56.5	× 22 / 116	−10.7
5	90,693	2440.8	− 2528	−87.2	× 19 / 116	−14.3
6	90,694	2470.9	− 2552	−81.1	× 23 / 116	−16.1
7	90,695	2473.6	− 2567	−93.4	× 14 / 116	−11.3
8	90,696	2469.8	− 2586	−116.2	× 13 / 116	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,381	2346.0	− 2436	−90	× 18 / 93	−17.4
4	90,382	2413.1	− 2485	−71.9	× 25 / 93	−19.3
5	90,383	2440.4	− 2528	−87.6	× 21 / 93	−19.8
6	90,384	2478.0	− 2552	−74	× 14 / 93	−11.1
7	90,385	2450.0	− 2567	−117	× 15 / 93	−18.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −42, −46, −51, −53, −57, −68, −66, −75, −87 → −60.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 11 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 6.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.1 × 2.66 = 16.2. Upper limit −44.4, lower limit −76.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Schools in Cinnabar Elementary

Cinnabar Charter Charter