Kawana Springs Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,988	2392.1	− 2436	−43.9	× 51 / 226	−9.9
4	93,991	2405.6	− 2485	−79.4	× 58 / 226	−20.4
5	93,992	2437.3	− 2528	−90.7	× 63 / 226	−25.3
6	93,995	2462.2	− 2552	−89.8	× 54 / 226	−21.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,259	2418.0	− 2436	−18	× 48 / 218	−4
4	87,262	2430.7	− 2485	−54.3	× 52 / 218	−13
5	87,264	2450.7	− 2528	−77.3	× 61 / 218	−21.6
6	87,265	2475.4	− 2552	−76.6	× 57 / 218	−20
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,742	2424.3	− 2436	−11.7	× 46 / 218	−2.5
4	89,744	2437.3	− 2485	−47.7	× 49 / 218	−10.7
5	89,747	2469.5	− 2528	−58.5	× 61 / 218	−16.4
6	89,749	2468.6	− 2552	−83.4	× 62 / 218	−23.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,957	2412.6	− 2436	−23.4	× 59 / 215	−6.4
4	89,959	2427.4	− 2485	−57.6	× 45 / 215	−12.1
5	89,961	2454.4	− 2528	−73.6	× 43 / 215	−14.7
6	89,963	2487.0	− 2552	−65	× 68 / 215	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,572	2421.9	− 2436	−14.1	× 46 / 195	−3.3
4	90,573	2435.1	− 2485	−49.9	× 63 / 195	−16.1
5	90,574	2465.2	− 2528	−62.8	× 44 / 195	−14.2
6	90,575	2508.0	− 2552	−44	× 42 / 195	−9.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,800	2353.9	− 2436	−82.1	× 45 / 139	−26.6
4	90,801	2346.9	− 2485	−138.1	× 30 / 139	−29.8
5	90,802	2387.9	− 2528	−140.1	× 34 / 139	−34.3
6	90,803	2430.9	− 2552	−121.1	× 30 / 139	−26.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,698	2333.7	− 2436	−102.3	× 36 / 131	−28.1
4	90,699	2386.8	− 2485	−98.2	× 39 / 131	−29.2
5	90,700	2412.8	− 2528	−115.2	× 24 / 131	−21.1
6	90,701	2403.8	− 2552	−148.2	× 32 / 131	−36.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,643	2334.5	− 2436	−101.5	× 37 / 139	−27
4	90,644	2363.8	− 2485	−121.2	× 35 / 139	−30.5
5	90,645	2437.7	− 2528	−90.3	× 38 / 139	−24.7
6	90,646	2422.6	− 2552	−129.4	× 29 / 139	−27
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,337	2354.7	− 2436	−81.3	× 38 / 141	−21.9
4	90,338	2393.7	− 2485	−91.3	× 32 / 141	−20.7
5	90,339	2407.2	− 2528	−120.8	× 32 / 141	−27.4
6	90,340	2435.8	− 2552	−116.2	× 39 / 141	−32.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −77, −59, −53, −54, −43, −117, −115, −109, −102 → −81
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 18 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 74 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 7 → average 15.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.6 × 2.66 = 41.5. Upper limit −39.5, lower limit −122.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.