Elsa Widenmann Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,687	2356.7	− 2436	−79.3	× 57 / 198	−22.8
4	93,688	2403.0	− 2485	−82	× 75 / 198	−31.1
5	93,691	2414.6	− 2528	−113.4	× 66 / 198	−37.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,055	2394.3	− 2436	−41.7	× 74 / 214	−14.4
4	87,058	2427.9	− 2485	−57.1	× 66 / 214	−17.6
5	87,059	2444.9	− 2528	−83.1	× 74 / 214	−28.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,518	2379.1	− 2436	−56.9	× 73 / 201	−20.7
4	89,521	2430.8	− 2485	−54.2	× 66 / 201	−17.8
5	89,522	2452.4	− 2528	−75.6	× 62 / 201	−23.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,729	2364.6	− 2436	−71.4	× 77 / 212	−25.9
4	89,732	2392.8	− 2485	−92.2	× 66 / 212	−28.7
5	89,733	2457.2	− 2528	−70.8	× 69 / 212	−23
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,355	2379.8	− 2436	−56.2	× 83 / 221	−21.1
4	90,356	2382.7	− 2485	−102.3	× 73 / 221	−33.8
5	90,357	2443.7	− 2528	−84.3	× 65 / 221	−24.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,604	2356.3	− 2436	−79.7	× 45 / 483	−7.4
4	90,605	2375.5	− 2485	−109.5	× 50 / 483	−11.3
5	90,606	2399.8	− 2528	−128.2	× 49 / 483	−13
6	90,607	2427.1	− 2552	−124.9	× 103 / 483	−26.6
7	90,608	2402.2	− 2567	−164.8	× 133 / 483	−45.4
8	90,609	2414.3	− 2586	−171.7	× 103 / 483	−36.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−140

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,506	2355.8	− 2436	−80.2	× 44 / 502	−7
4	90,507	2387.8	− 2485	−97.2	× 47 / 502	−9.1
5	90,508	2420.7	− 2528	−107.3	× 56 / 502	−12
6	90,509	2404.1	− 2552	−147.9	× 101 / 502	−29.8
7	90,510	2420.9	− 2567	−146.1	× 120 / 502	−34.9
8	90,511	2409.4	− 2586	−176.6	× 134 / 502	−47.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−140

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,439	2355.6	− 2436	−80.4	× 42 / 479	−7
4	90,440	2386.4	− 2485	−98.6	× 53 / 479	−10.9
5	90,441	2422.0	− 2528	−106	× 52 / 479	−11.5
6	90,442	2434.4	− 2552	−117.6	× 114 / 479	−28
7	90,443	2411.4	− 2567	−155.6	× 93 / 479	−30.2
8	90,444	2403.4	− 2586	−182.6	× 125 / 479	−47.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−135

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,117	2341.7	− 2436	−94.3	× 31 / 464	−6.3
4	90,118	2373.7	− 2485	−111.3	× 44 / 464	−10.6
5	90,119	2408.9	− 2528	−119.1	× 54 / 464	−13.9
6	90,120	2431.2	− 2552	−120.8	× 101 / 464	−26.3
7	90,121	2457.0	− 2567	−110	× 123 / 464	−29.2
8	90,122	2405.0	− 2586	−181	× 111 / 464	−43.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−129

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −92, −61, −62, −78, −80, −140, −140, −135, −129 → −101.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 31 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 16 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 60 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 15.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.1 × 2.66 = 40.2. Upper limit −61.7, lower limit −142.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.