Travis Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,275	2460.2	− 2436	24.2	× 61 / 223	6.6
4	93,276	2477.9	− 2485	−7.1	× 53 / 223	−1.7
5	93,279	2506.8	− 2528	−21.2	× 55 / 223	−5.2
6	93,280	2552.1	− 2552	0.1	× 54 / 223	0
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	86,674	2462.8	− 2436	26.8	× 68 / 233	7.8
4	86,676	2503.9	− 2485	18.9	× 57 / 233	4.6
5	86,678	2507.3	− 2528	−20.7	× 59 / 233	−5.2
6	86,679	2572.6	− 2552	20.6	× 49 / 233	4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,078	2474.4	− 2436	38.4	× 65 / 250	10
4	89,081	2482.1	− 2485	−2.9	× 70 / 250	−0.8
5	89,082	2533.1	− 2528	5.1	× 49 / 250	1
6	89,085	2564.3	− 2552	12.3	× 66 / 250	3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,293	2451.9	− 2436	15.9	× 75 / 267	4.5
4	89,294	2498.1	− 2485	13.1	× 66 / 267	3.2
5	89,297	2497.3	− 2528	−30.7	× 65 / 267	−7.5
6	89,298	2584.0	− 2552	32	× 61 / 267	7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,904	2460.2	− 2436	24.2	× 70 / 249	6.8
4	89,905	2467.5	− 2485	−17.5	× 65 / 249	−4.6
5	89,906	2531.0	− 2528	3	× 55 / 249	0.7
6	89,907	2546.6	− 2552	−5.4	× 59 / 249	−1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,176	2439.8	− 2436	3.8	× 62 / 193	1.2
4	90,177	2468.7	− 2485	−16.3	× 57 / 193	−4.8
5	90,178	2485.8	− 2528	−42.2	× 46 / 193	−10.1
6	90,179	2569.9	− 2552	17.9	× 28 / 193	2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,066	2439.1	− 2436	3.1	× 56 / 192	0.9
4	90,067	2479.5	− 2485	−5.5	× 64 / 192	−1.8
5	90,068	2488.7	− 2528	−39.3	× 44 / 192	−9
6	90,069	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 28 / 192	−2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,013	2409.3	− 2436	−26.7	× 61 / 209	−7.8
4	90,014	2468.3	− 2485	−16.7	× 50 / 209	−4
5	90,015	2482.5	− 2528	−45.5	× 59 / 209	−12.8
6	90,016	2542.7	− 2552	−9.3	× 39 / 209	−1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,701	2444.9	− 2436	8.9	× 49 / 204	2.1
4	89,702	2483.7	− 2485	−1.3	× 53 / 204	−0.3
5	89,703	2491.6	− 2528	−36.4	× 55 / 204	−9.8
6	89,704	2535.4	− 2552	−16.6	× 47 / 204	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 0, 12, 13, 8, 2, −11, −13, −26, −12 → −3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 8.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.3 × 2.66 = 22.1. Upper limit 19.1, lower limit −25.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.