Happy Camp Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,253	2316.8	− 2436	−119.2	× 20 / 74	−32.2
5	92,257	2460.5	− 2528	−67.5	× 11 / 74	−10
6	92,258	2466.8	− 2552	−85.2	× 11 / 74	−12.7
7	92,261	2448.8	− 2567	−118.2	× 13 / 74	−20.8
8	92,262	2488.3	− 2586	−97.7	× 19 / 74	−25.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,675	2402.8	− 2436	−33.2	× 14 / 35	−13.3
4	85,676	2387.9	− 2485	−97.1	× 21 / 35	−58.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	88,052	2422.3	− 2485	−62.7	× 11 / 30	−23
5	88,053	2454.6	− 2528	−73.4	× 19 / 30	−46.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	88,278	2436.4	− 2485	−48.6	× 11 / 29	−18.4
6	88,282	2414.8	− 2552	−137.2	× 18 / 29	−85.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	88,928	2447.8	− 2528	−80.2	× 13 / 41	−25.4
7	88,930	2421.0	− 2567	−146	× 16 / 41	−57
8	88,931	2468.2	− 2586	−117.8	× 12 / 41	−34.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,092	2394.5	− 2436	−41.5	× 12 / 27	−18.4
4	87,093	2463.5	− 2485	−21.5	× 15 / 27	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,185	2336.7	− 2436	−99.3	× 11 / 37	−29.5
4	89,186	2390.2	− 2485	−94.8	× 11 / 37	−28.2
5	89,187	2430.3	− 2528	−97.7	× 15 / 37	−39.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−97

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,060	2292.4	− 2436	−143.6	× 13 / 28	−66.7
6	89,063	2433.0	− 2552	−119	× 15 / 28	−63.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−130

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	89,058	2398.0	− 2485	−87	× 12 / 26	−40.2
7	89,061	2477.0	− 2567	−90	× 14 / 26	−48.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	88,743	2384.3	− 2528	−143.7	× 11 / 23	−68.7
8	88,746	2395.5	− 2586	−190.5	× 12 / 23	−99.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−168

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −101, −72, −69, −104, −117, −30, −97, −130, −89, −168 → −97.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 29 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 35 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2021: 87 · 2021→2022: 67 · 2022→2023: 33 · 2023→2024: 41 · 2024→2025: 79 → average 43
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 43 × 2.66 = 114.4. Upper limit 16.7, lower limit −212.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.