Black Butte Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,730	2378.1	− 2436	−57.9	× 16 / 130	−7.1
4	90,732	2427.9	− 2485	−57.1	× 31 / 130	−13.6
5	90,733	2503.5	− 2528	−24.5	× 17 / 130	−3.2
6	90,736	2502.8	− 2552	−49.2	× 25 / 130	−9.5
7	90,737	2513.5	− 2567	−53.5	× 25 / 130	−10.3
8	90,740	2566.4	− 2586	−19.6	× 16 / 130	−2.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,210	2415.4	− 2436	−20.6	× 24 / 134	−3.7
4	84,211	2448.9	− 2485	−36.1	× 16 / 134	−4.3
5	84,213	2506.3	− 2528	−21.7	× 22 / 134	−3.6
6	84,215	2489.5	− 2552	−62.5	× 19 / 134	−8.9
7	84,217	2532.6	− 2567	−34.4	× 25 / 134	−6.4
8	84,219	2522.3	− 2586	−63.7	× 28 / 134	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	86,533	2415.8	− 2436	−20.2	× 17 / 125	−2.7
4	86,535	2436.1	− 2485	−48.9	× 25 / 125	−9.8
5	86,538	2499.3	− 2528	−28.7	× 15 / 125	−3.4
6	86,540	2529.4	− 2552	−22.6	× 22 / 125	−4
7	86,541	2508.7	− 2567	−58.3	× 21 / 125	−9.8
8	86,544	2522.2	− 2586	−63.8	× 25 / 125	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	86,757	2433.7	− 2436	−2.3	× 21 / 130	−0.4
4	86,760	2425.4	− 2485	−59.6	× 18 / 130	−8.3
5	86,761	2470.7	− 2528	−57.3	× 27 / 130	−11.9
6	86,764	2458.9	− 2552	−93.1	× 14 / 130	−10
7	86,765	2518.7	− 2567	−48.3	× 25 / 130	−9.3
8	86,768	2515.6	− 2586	−70.4	× 25 / 130	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,366	2432.9	− 2436	−3.1	× 23 / 129	−0.6
4	87,367	2450.2	− 2485	−34.8	× 22 / 129	−5.9
5	87,368	2509.8	− 2528	−18.2	× 17 / 129	−2.4
6	87,369	2475.0	− 2552	−77	× 22 / 129	−13.1
7	87,370	2517.4	− 2567	−49.6	× 17 / 129	−6.5
8	87,371	2559.9	− 2586	−26.1	× 28 / 129	−5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,703	2360.2	− 2436	−75.8	× 19 / 129	−11.2
4	87,704	2403.7	− 2485	−81.3	× 23 / 129	−14.5
5	87,705	2429.1	− 2528	−98.9	× 30 / 129	−23
6	87,706	2497.5	− 2552	−54.5	× 23 / 129	−9.7
7	87,707	2447.0	− 2567	−120	× 22 / 129	−20.5
8	87,708	2414.8	− 2586	−171.2	× 12 / 129	−15.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,619	2393.6	− 2436	−42.4	× 33 / 161	−8.7
4	87,620	2401.3	− 2485	−83.7	× 23 / 161	−12
5	87,621	2434.6	− 2528	−93.4	× 30 / 161	−17.4
6	87,622	2480.7	− 2552	−71.3	× 31 / 161	−13.7
7	87,623	2449.5	− 2567	−117.5	× 21 / 161	−15.3
8	87,624	2492.4	− 2586	−93.6	× 23 / 161	−13.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,599	2367.3	− 2436	−68.7	× 26 / 164	−10.9
4	87,600	2435.6	− 2485	−49.4	× 34 / 164	−10.2
5	87,601	2410.2	− 2528	−117.8	× 22 / 164	−15.8
6	87,602	2419.2	− 2552	−132.8	× 28 / 164	−22.7
7	87,603	2466.0	− 2567	−101	× 31 / 164	−19.1
8	87,604	2503.5	− 2586	−82.5	× 23 / 164	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,291	2366.7	− 2436	−69.3	× 26 / 169	−10.7
4	87,292	2411.7	− 2485	−73.3	× 26 / 169	−11.3
5	87,293	2456.7	− 2528	−71.3	× 35 / 169	−14.8
6	87,294	2441.5	− 2552	−110.5	× 21 / 169	−13.7
7	87,295	2473.9	− 2567	−93.1	× 28 / 169	−15.4
8	87,296	2495.6	− 2586	−90.4	× 33 / 169	−17.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −46, −40, −43, −53, −34, −95, −80, −90, −84 → −62.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 19 · 2019→2022: 61 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 16.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 16.3 × 2.66 = 43.4. Upper limit −19.4, lower limit −106.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.