Bonita Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,531	2374.9	− 2436	−61.1	× 88 / 346	−15.5
4	84,534	2406.7	− 2485	−78.3	× 94 / 346	−21.3
5	84,535	2438.5	− 2528	−89.5	× 85 / 346	−22
6	84,538	2473.7	− 2552	−78.3	× 79 / 346	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,349	2395.3	− 2436	−40.7	× 81 / 293	−11.3
4	78,351	2425.4	− 2485	−59.6	× 72 / 293	−14.6
5	78,353	2469.5	− 2528	−58.5	× 73 / 293	−14.6
6	78,354	2453.3	− 2552	−98.7	× 67 / 293	−22.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,506	2384.0	− 2436	−52	× 88 / 330	−13.9
4	80,508	2426.7	− 2485	−58.3	× 81 / 330	−14.3
5	80,509	2457.5	− 2528	−70.5	× 81 / 330	−17.3
6	80,512	2469.1	− 2552	−82.9	× 80 / 330	−20.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,662	2389.9	− 2436	−46.1	× 78 / 305	−11.8
4	80,665	2423.7	− 2485	−61.3	× 78 / 305	−15.7
5	80,666	2458.1	− 2528	−69.9	× 75 / 305	−17.2
6	80,669	2454.7	− 2552	−97.3	× 74 / 305	−23.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,186	2385.9	− 2436	−50.1	× 78 / 305	−12.8
4	81,187	2452.2	− 2485	−32.8	× 74 / 305	−8
5	81,188	2474.2	− 2528	−53.8	× 77 / 305	−13.6
6	81,189	2463.4	− 2552	−88.6	× 76 / 305	−22.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,407	2356.2	− 2436	−79.8	× 69 / 305	−18.1
4	81,408	2397.3	− 2485	−87.7	× 87 / 305	−25
5	81,409	2409.3	− 2528	−118.7	× 75 / 305	−29.2
6	81,410	2424.7	− 2552	−127.3	× 74 / 305	−30.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−103

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,369	2364.8	− 2436	−71.2	× 66 / 295	−15.9
4	81,370	2402.5	− 2485	−82.5	× 72 / 295	−20.1
5	81,371	2417.9	− 2528	−110.1	× 87 / 295	−32.5
6	81,372	2420.4	− 2552	−131.6	× 70 / 295	−31.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,381	2354.1	− 2436	−81.9	× 75 / 310	−19.8
4	81,382	2406.0	− 2485	−79	× 70 / 310	−17.8
5	81,383	2408.8	− 2528	−119.2	× 77 / 310	−29.6
6	81,384	2455.1	− 2552	−96.9	× 88 / 310	−27.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,049	2364.5	− 2436	−71.5	× 77 / 293	−18.8
4	81,050	2389.7	− 2485	−95.3	× 72 / 293	−23.4
5	81,051	2433.1	− 2528	−94.9	× 70 / 293	−22.7
6	81,052	2446.8	− 2552	−105.2	× 74 / 293	−26.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −77, −63, −66, −68, −56, −103, −100, −95, −91 → −79.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 47 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 11.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.3 × 2.66 = 30.1. Upper limit −49.8, lower limit −110.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.