Arellanes (Don Juan Bautista) Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,562	2399.4	− 2436	−36.6	× 39 / 164	−8.7
4	84,563	2408.7	− 2485	−76.3	× 39 / 164	−18.1
5	84,566	2406.0	− 2528	−122	× 45 / 164	−33.5
6	84,567	2453.4	− 2552	−98.6	× 41 / 164	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,379	2378.6	− 2436	−57.4	× 40 / 164	−14
4	78,380	2416.6	− 2485	−68.4	× 38 / 164	−15.8
5	78,382	2412.3	− 2528	−115.7	× 38 / 164	−26.8
6	78,385	2444.6	− 2552	−107.4	× 48 / 164	−31.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,535	2396.4	− 2436	−39.6	× 45 / 167	−10.7
4	80,537	2429.1	− 2485	−55.9	× 45 / 167	−15.1
5	80,540	2413.2	− 2528	−114.8	× 37 / 167	−25.4
6	80,541	2438.0	− 2552	−114	× 40 / 167	−27.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,693	2399.6	− 2436	−36.4	× 36 / 169	−7.8
4	80,694	2428.4	− 2485	−56.6	× 47 / 169	−15.7
5	80,697	2439.9	− 2528	−88.1	× 46 / 169	−24
6	80,698	2495.8	− 2552	−56.2	× 40 / 169	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,216	2381.3	− 2436	−54.7	× 41 / 163	−13.8
4	81,217	2462.4	− 2485	−22.6	× 36 / 163	−5
5	81,218	2483.7	− 2528	−44.3	× 44 / 163	−12
6	81,219	2481.4	− 2552	−70.6	× 42 / 163	−18.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,437	2381.3	− 2436	−54.7	× 39 / 163	−13.1
4	81,438	2415.5	− 2485	−69.5	× 39 / 163	−16.6
5	81,439	2417.7	− 2528	−110.3	× 45 / 163	−30.5
6	81,440	2490.3	− 2552	−61.7	× 40 / 163	−15.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,399	2397.8	− 2436	−38.2	× 34 / 154	−8.4
4	81,400	2412.4	− 2485	−72.6	× 39 / 154	−18.4
5	81,401	2454.0	− 2528	−74	× 37 / 154	−17.8
6	81,402	2500.3	− 2552	−51.7	× 44 / 154	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,411	2371.2	− 2436	−64.8	× 44 / 154	−18.5
4	81,412	2431.1	− 2485	−53.9	× 32 / 154	−11.2
5	81,413	2465.7	− 2528	−62.3	× 41 / 154	−16.6
6	81,414	2509.7	− 2552	−42.3	× 37 / 154	−10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,079	2391.1	− 2436	−44.9	× 39 / 158	−11.1
4	81,080	2415.6	− 2485	−69.4	× 42 / 158	−18.4
5	81,081	2453.3	− 2528	−74.7	× 36 / 158	−17
6	81,082	2515.9	− 2552	−36.1	× 41 / 158	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −85, −88, −78, −61, −49, −75, −59, −56, −56 → −67.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 17 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 16 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 10.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.9 × 2.66 = 29. Upper limit −38.4, lower limit −96.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.