Monroe Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,554	2407.0	− 2436	−29	× 70 / 246	−8.3
4	85,555	2418.8	− 2485	−66.2	× 56 / 246	−15.1
5	85,558	2450.5	− 2528	−77.5	× 63 / 246	−19.8
6	85,559	2462.7	− 2552	−89.3	× 57 / 246	−20.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,367	2415.7	− 2436	−20.3	× 47 / 222	−4.3
4	79,368	2429.2	− 2485	−55.8	× 57 / 222	−14.3
5	79,371	2433.5	− 2528	−94.5	× 53 / 222	−22.6
6	79,373	2465.2	− 2552	−86.8	× 65 / 222	−25.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,536	2411.7	− 2436	−24.3	× 67 / 223	−7.3
4	81,537	2403.5	− 2485	−81.5	× 46 / 223	−16.8
5	81,540	2450.7	− 2528	−77.3	× 55 / 223	−19.1
6	81,541	2432.0	− 2552	−120	× 55 / 223	−29.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,726	2401.6	− 2436	−34.4	× 64 / 228	−9.7
4	81,729	2426.5	− 2485	−58.5	× 63 / 228	−16.2
5	81,730	2438.9	− 2528	−89.1	× 42 / 228	−16.4
6	81,733	2470.8	− 2552	−81.2	× 59 / 228	−21
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,246	2407.2	− 2436	−28.8	× 55 / 219	−7.2
4	82,247	2429.8	− 2485	−55.2	× 57 / 219	−14.4
5	82,248	2439.8	− 2528	−88.2	× 64 / 219	−25.8
6	82,249	2471.8	− 2552	−80.2	× 43 / 219	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,453	2424.1	− 2436	−11.9	× 40 / 180	−2.6
4	82,454	2472.3	− 2485	−12.7	× 45 / 180	−3.2
5	82,455	2495.9	− 2528	−32.1	× 50 / 180	−8.9
6	82,456	2491.0	− 2552	−61	× 45 / 180	−15.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,419	2413.4	− 2436	−22.6	× 34 / 179	−4.3
4	82,420	2467.0	− 2485	−18	× 44 / 179	−4.4
5	82,421	2475.6	− 2528	−52.4	× 45 / 179	−13.2
6	82,422	2515.1	− 2552	−36.9	× 56 / 179	−11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,433	2407.3	− 2436	−28.7	× 40 / 171	−6.7
4	82,434	2425.1	− 2485	−59.9	× 39 / 171	−13.7
5	82,435	2492.0	− 2528	−36	× 45 / 171	−9.5
6	82,436	2509.3	− 2552	−42.7	× 47 / 171	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,111	2400.2	− 2436	−35.8	× 44 / 167	−9.4
4	82,112	2429.9	− 2485	−55.1	× 41 / 167	−13.5
5	82,113	2510.9	− 2528	−17.1	× 37 / 167	−3.8
6	82,114	2508.3	− 2552	−43.7	× 45 / 167	−11.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −64, −67, −73, −63, −63, −30, −33, −42, −39 → −52.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2022: 33 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 8.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.4 × 2.66 = 22.3. Upper limit −30.4, lower limit −75.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.