Ralph Dunlap Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,288	2414.2	− 2436	−21.8	× 93 / 400	−5.1
4	85,289	2461.5	− 2485	−23.5	× 105 / 400	−6.2
5	85,292	2496.6	− 2528	−31.4	× 98 / 400	−7.7
6	85,293	2538.0	− 2552	−14	× 104 / 400	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,096	2446.3	− 2436	10.3	× 80 / 388	2.1
4	79,099	2460.7	− 2485	−24.3	× 102 / 388	−6.4
5	79,100	2497.6	− 2528	−30.4	× 109 / 388	−8.5
6	79,102	2538.4	− 2552	−13.6	× 97 / 388	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,252	2421.1	− 2436	−14.9	× 88 / 376	−3.5
4	81,253	2492.4	− 2485	7.4	× 82 / 376	1.6
5	81,255	2480.5	− 2528	−47.5	× 100 / 376	−12.6
6	81,258	2545.4	− 2552	−6.6	× 106 / 376	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,401	2392.8	− 2436	−43.2	× 79 / 340	−10
4	81,402	2494.5	− 2485	9.5	× 83 / 340	2.3
5	81,405	2509.8	− 2528	−18.2	× 83 / 340	−4.4
6	81,406	2540.2	− 2552	−11.8	× 95 / 340	−3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,934	2414.3	− 2436	−21.7	× 85 / 343	−5.4
4	81,935	2469.3	− 2485	−15.7	× 81 / 343	−3.7
5	81,936	2491.9	− 2528	−36.1	× 88 / 343	−9.3
6	81,937	2548.6	− 2552	−3.4	× 89 / 343	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,169	2422.3	− 2436	−13.7	× 59 / 282	−2.9
4	82,170	2427.5	− 2485	−57.5	× 62 / 282	−12.6
5	82,171	2453.0	− 2528	−75	× 80 / 282	−21.3
6	82,172	2505.0	− 2552	−47	× 81 / 282	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,129	2403.6	− 2436	−32.4	× 68 / 291	−7.6
4	82,130	2428.9	− 2485	−56.1	× 76 / 291	−14.7
5	82,131	2429.0	− 2528	−99	× 72 / 291	−24.5
6	82,132	2512.5	− 2552	−39.5	× 75 / 291	−10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,141	2403.4	− 2436	−32.6	× 65 / 277	−7.6
4	82,142	2435.6	− 2485	−49.4	× 65 / 277	−11.6
5	82,143	2439.5	− 2528	−88.5	× 79 / 277	−25.2
6	82,144	2515.2	− 2552	−36.8	× 68 / 277	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,813	2405.4	− 2436	−30.6	× 66 / 280	−7.2
4	81,814	2441.5	− 2485	−43.5	× 69 / 280	−10.7
5	81,815	2483.7	− 2528	−44.3	× 64 / 280	−10.1
6	81,816	2487.1	− 2552	−64.9	× 81 / 280	−18.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −23, −16, −16, −15, −19, −50, −57, −54, −47 → −33
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 31 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 7 → average 7.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.5 × 2.66 = 20. Upper limit −13, lower limit −53.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.