Joe Nightingale Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,303	2424.9	− 2436	−11.1	× 99 / 419	−2.6
4	85,306	2462.2	− 2485	−22.8	× 109 / 419	−5.9
5	85,307	2499.9	− 2528	−28.1	× 103 / 419	−6.9
6	85,310	2547.9	− 2552	−4.1	× 108 / 419	−1.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,112	2440.4	− 2436	4.4	× 84 / 384	1
4	79,115	2488.9	− 2485	3.9	× 95 / 384	1
5	79,117	2501.0	− 2528	−27	× 102 / 384	−7.2
6	79,119	2533.2	− 2552	−18.8	× 103 / 384	−5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,267	2431.9	− 2436	−4.1	× 91 / 383	−1
4	81,269	2495.6	− 2485	10.6	× 88 / 383	2.4
5	81,272	2521.4	− 2528	−6.6	× 101 / 383	−1.7
6	81,274	2540.6	− 2552	−11.4	× 103 / 383	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,416	2444.8	− 2436	8.8	× 96 / 381	2.2
4	81,419	2482.2	− 2485	−2.8	× 95 / 381	−0.7
5	81,420	2522.8	− 2528	−5.2	× 87 / 381	−1.2
6	81,423	2540.9	− 2552	−11.1	× 103 / 381	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,950	2437.1	− 2436	1.1	× 97 / 380	0.3
4	81,951	2502.6	− 2485	17.6	× 98 / 380	4.5
5	81,952	2518.7	− 2528	−9.3	× 98 / 380	−2.4
6	81,953	2542.1	− 2552	−9.9	× 87 / 380	−2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,185	2440.6	− 2436	4.6	× 94 / 363	1.2
4	82,186	2482.0	− 2485	−3	× 94 / 363	−0.8
5	82,187	2506.1	− 2528	−21.9	× 91 / 363	−5.5
6	82,188	2517.4	− 2552	−34.6	× 84 / 363	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,145	2451.2	− 2436	15.2	× 86 / 370	3.5
4	82,146	2509.5	− 2485	24.5	× 94 / 370	6.2
5	82,147	2533.2	− 2528	5.2	× 95 / 370	1.3
6	82,148	2532.9	− 2552	−19.1	× 95 / 370	−4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,157	2424.6	− 2436	−11.4	× 104 / 384	−3.1
4	82,158	2496.8	− 2485	11.8	× 90 / 384	2.8
5	82,159	2540.3	− 2528	12.3	× 96 / 384	3.1
6	82,160	2567.2	− 2552	15.2	× 94 / 384	3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,829	2413.7	− 2436	−22.3	× 92 / 396	−5.2
4	81,830	2478.1	− 2485	−6.9	× 103 / 396	−1.8
5	81,831	2548.6	− 2528	20.6	× 95 / 396	4.9
6	81,832	2563.0	− 2552	11	× 106 / 396	2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −17, −10, −3, −3, 0, −13, 6, 6, 1 → −3.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 19 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 6.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.8 × 2.66 = 18.1. Upper limit 14.4, lower limit −21.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.