Buellton Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,679	2440.9	− 2436	4.9	× 63 / 402	0.8
4	84,682	2494.9	− 2485	9.9	× 66 / 402	1.6
5	84,683	2540.9	− 2528	12.9	× 59 / 402	1.9
6	84,686	2551.8	− 2552	−0.2	× 94 / 402	0
7	84,687	2567.4	− 2567	0.4	× 65 / 402	0.1
8	84,690	2565.6	− 2586	−20.4	× 55 / 402	−2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,497	2450.5	− 2436	14.5	× 59 / 395	2.2
4	78,499	2490.9	− 2485	5.9	× 58 / 395	0.9
5	78,500	2540.4	− 2528	12.4	× 65 / 395	2
6	78,503	2558.3	− 2552	6.3	× 53 / 395	0.8
7	78,505	2590.3	− 2567	23.3	× 94 / 395	5.5
8	78,507	2599.8	− 2586	13.8	× 66 / 395	2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,654	2440.0	− 2436	4	× 73 / 406	0.7
4	80,656	2490.2	− 2485	5.2	× 62 / 406	0.8
5	80,658	2523.4	− 2528	−4.6	× 59 / 406	−0.7
6	80,660	2578.5	− 2552	26.5	× 62 / 406	4
7	80,661	2601.8	− 2567	34.8	× 54 / 406	4.6
8	80,664	2604.4	− 2586	18.4	× 96 / 406	4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,811	2438.1	− 2436	2.1	× 71 / 372	0.4
4	80,812	2472.5	− 2485	−12.5	× 74 / 372	−2.5
5	80,815	2523.4	− 2528	−4.6	× 60 / 372	−0.7
6	80,816	2583.7	− 2552	31.7	× 56 / 372	4.8
7	80,819	2600.7	− 2567	33.7	× 60 / 372	5.4
8	80,820	2630.3	− 2586	44.3	× 51 / 372	6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,336	2440.1	− 2436	4.1	× 64 / 390	0.7
4	81,337	2458.2	− 2485	−26.8	× 72 / 390	−4.9
5	81,338	2507.9	− 2528	−20.1	× 79 / 390	−4.1
6	81,339	2562.3	− 2552	10.3	× 58 / 390	1.5
7	81,340	2599.6	− 2567	32.6	× 54 / 390	4.5
8	81,341	2643.9	− 2586	57.9	× 63 / 390	9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,557	2408.5	− 2436	−27.5	× 65 / 355	−5
4	81,558	2427.4	− 2485	−57.6	× 52 / 355	−8.4
5	81,559	2465.2	− 2528	−62.8	× 53 / 355	−9.4
6	81,560	2476.9	− 2552	−75.1	× 62 / 355	−13.1
7	81,561	2530.5	− 2567	−36.5	× 54 / 355	−5.6
8	81,562	2556.2	− 2586	−29.8	× 69 / 355	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,519	2421.1	− 2436	−14.9	× 39 / 319	−1.8
4	81,520	2462.4	− 2485	−22.6	× 56 / 319	−4
5	81,521	2469.6	− 2528	−58.4	× 54 / 319	−9.9
6	81,522	2475.2	− 2552	−76.8	× 52 / 319	−12.5
7	81,523	2536.5	− 2567	−30.5	× 62 / 319	−5.9
8	81,524	2546.1	− 2586	−39.9	× 56 / 319	−7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,531	2441.3	− 2436	5.3	× 59 / 329	1
4	81,532	2455.1	− 2485	−29.9	× 42 / 329	−3.8
5	81,533	2461.5	− 2528	−66.5	× 57 / 329	−11.5
6	81,534	2514.2	− 2552	−37.8	× 50 / 329	−5.7
7	81,535	2546.9	− 2567	−20.1	× 59 / 329	−3.6
8	81,536	2566.8	− 2586	−19.2	× 62 / 329	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,199	2437.2	− 2436	1.2	× 51 / 313	0.2
4	81,200	2495.7	− 2485	10.7	× 59 / 313	2
5	81,201	2502.6	− 2528	−25.4	× 44 / 313	−3.6
6	81,202	2532.0	− 2552	−20	× 50 / 313	−3.2
7	81,203	2535.9	− 2567	−31.1	× 52 / 313	−5.2
8	81,204	2588.8	− 2586	2.8	× 57 / 313	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 2, 14, 14, 13, 7, −47, −41, −27, −9 → −8.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2022: 54 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 18 → average 13.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.9 × 2.66 = 37. Upper limit 28.8, lower limit −45.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.