Belle Haven Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,344	2367.1	− 2436	−68.9	× 58 / 335	−11.9
4	83,347	2395.5	− 2485	−89.5	× 49 / 335	−13.1
5	83,348	2410.0	− 2528	−118	× 51 / 335	−18
6	83,350	2401.1	− 2552	−150.9	× 59 / 335	−26.6
7	83,353	2451.8	− 2567	−115.2	× 57 / 335	−19.6
8	83,354	2448.4	− 2586	−137.6	× 61 / 335	−25.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,277	2374.2	− 2436	−61.8	× 68 / 341	−12.3
4	77,278	2397.3	− 2485	−87.7	× 61 / 341	−15.7
5	77,281	2416.0	− 2528	−112	× 54 / 341	−17.7
6	77,282	2445.3	− 2552	−106.7	× 47 / 341	−14.7
7	77,284	2431.9	− 2567	−135.1	× 56 / 341	−22.2
8	77,286	2451.4	− 2586	−134.6	× 55 / 341	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,412	2392.3	− 2436	−43.7	× 64 / 339	−8.3
4	79,413	2410.0	− 2485	−75	× 60 / 339	−13.3
5	79,416	2433.2	− 2528	−94.8	× 55 / 339	−15.4
6	79,417	2476.9	− 2552	−75.1	× 47 / 339	−10.4
7	79,419	2442.8	− 2567	−124.2	× 52 / 339	−19.1
8	79,421	2409.7	− 2586	−176.3	× 61 / 339	−31.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,563	2399.5	− 2436	−36.5	× 60 / 267	−8.2
4	79,565	2427.2	− 2485	−57.8	× 62 / 267	−13.4
5	79,567	2442.2	− 2528	−85.8	× 59 / 267	−19
7	79,569	2420.1	− 2567	−146.9	× 43 / 267	−23.7
8	79,571	2484.1	− 2586	−101.9	× 43 / 267	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,083	2369.2	− 2436	−66.8	× 50 / 212	−15.8
4	80,084	2430.3	− 2485	−54.7	× 53 / 212	−13.7
5	80,085	2437.0	− 2528	−91	× 59 / 212	−25.3
8	80,086	2404.2	− 2586	−181.8	× 50 / 212	−42.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,360	2344.5	− 2436	−91.5	× 72 / 192	−34.3
4	80,361	2416.5	− 2485	−68.5	× 56 / 192	−20
5	80,362	2405.2	− 2528	−122.8	× 64 / 192	−40.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,324	2295.5	− 2436	−140.5	× 47 / 184	−35.9
4	80,325	2397.8	− 2485	−87.2	× 75 / 184	−35.5
5	80,326	2385.8	− 2528	−142.2	× 62 / 184	−47.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,342	2314.4	− 2436	−121.6	× 73 / 212	−41.9
4	80,343	2399.7	− 2485	−85.3	× 54 / 212	−21.7
5	80,344	2389.9	− 2528	−138.1	× 85 / 212	−55.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,006	2338.6	− 2436	−97.4	× 45 / 166	−26.4
4	80,007	2343.8	− 2485	−141.2	× 66 / 166	−56.1
5	80,008	2390.3	− 2528	−137.7	× 55 / 166	−45.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−128

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −114, −104, −98, −81, −98, −95, −119, −119, −128 → −106.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 17 · 2018→2019: 17 · 2019→2022: 3 · 2022→2023: 24 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 10.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.8 × 2.66 = 28.7. Upper limit −77.5, lower limit −134.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.