Vallemar Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,058	2461.2	− 2436	25.2	× 56 / 341	4.1
4	83,060	2502.4	− 2485	17.4	× 59 / 341	3
5	83,063	2529.5	− 2528	1.5	× 63 / 341	0.3
6	83,064	2536.5	− 2552	−15.5	× 60 / 341	−2.7
7	83,066	2603.9	− 2567	36.9	× 56 / 341	6.1
8	83,069	2618.3	− 2586	32.3	× 47 / 341	4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,024	2453.6	− 2436	17.6	× 51 / 358	2.5
4	77,026	2478.0	− 2485	−7	× 64 / 358	−1.3
5	77,029	2538.0	− 2528	10	× 64 / 358	1.8
6	77,030	2578.4	− 2552	26.4	× 62 / 358	4.6
7	77,032	2611.1	− 2567	44.1	× 58 / 358	7.1
8	77,034	2603.7	− 2586	17.7	× 59 / 358	2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						18

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,115	2473.8	− 2436	37.8	× 55 / 332	6.3
4	79,118	2507.2	− 2485	22.2	× 52 / 332	3.5
5	79,119	2535.3	− 2528	7.3	× 62 / 332	1.4
6	79,122	2586.2	− 2552	34.2	× 49 / 332	5
7	79,123	2632.8	− 2567	65.8	× 58 / 332	11.5
8	79,125	2619.6	− 2586	33.6	× 56 / 332	5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						33

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,254	2493.4	− 2436	57.4	× 38 / 339	6.4
4	79,257	2525.4	− 2485	40.4	× 59 / 339	7
5	79,258	2551.7	− 2528	23.7	× 60 / 339	4.2
6	79,261	2576.6	− 2552	24.6	× 63 / 339	4.6
7	79,262	2598.9	− 2567	31.9	× 58 / 339	5.5
8	79,265	2639.2	− 2586	53.2	× 61 / 339	9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						37

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,787	2469.4	− 2436	33.4	× 59 / 330	6
4	79,788	2533.4	− 2485	48.4	× 36 / 330	5.3
5	79,789	2565.9	− 2528	37.9	× 56 / 330	6.4
6	79,790	2583.3	− 2552	31.3	× 62 / 330	5.9
7	79,791	2615.1	− 2567	48.1	× 63 / 330	9.2
8	79,792	2612.3	− 2586	26.3	× 54 / 330	4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						37

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,278	2442.5	− 2436	6.5	× 40 / 249	1
4	78,279	2514.3	− 2485	29.3	× 48 / 249	5.6
5	78,280	2498.9	− 2528	−29.1	× 47 / 249	−5.5
6	78,281	2584.0	− 2552	32	× 21 / 249	2.7
7	78,282	2575.2	− 2567	8.2	× 43 / 249	1.4
8	78,283	2580.2	− 2586	−5.8	× 50 / 249	−1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,039	2444.6	− 2436	8.6	× 55 / 261	1.8
4	80,040	2506.3	− 2485	21.3	× 44 / 261	3.6
5	80,041	2540.4	− 2528	12.4	× 57 / 261	2.7
6	80,042	2574.4	− 2552	22.4	× 49 / 261	4.2
7	80,043	2617.5	− 2567	50.5	× 27 / 261	5.2
8	80,044	2519.0	− 2586	−67	× 29 / 261	−7.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,011	2470.1	− 2436	34.1	× 54 / 292	6.3
4	80,012	2502.5	− 2485	17.5	× 56 / 292	3.4
5	80,013	2517.6	− 2528	−10.4	× 46 / 292	−1.6
6	80,014	2579.8	− 2552	27.8	× 53 / 292	5
7	80,015	2564.5	− 2567	−2.5	× 58 / 292	−0.5
8	80,016	2613.0	− 2586	27	× 25 / 292	2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,035	2481.5	− 2436	45.5	× 71 / 320	10.1
4	80,036	2522.5	− 2485	37.5	× 53 / 320	6.2
5	80,037	2507.9	− 2528	−20.1	× 56 / 320	−3.5
6	80,038	2502.4	− 2552	−49.6	× 31 / 320	−4.8
7	80,039	2602.8	− 2567	35.8	× 50 / 320	5.6
8	80,040	2595.8	− 2586	9.8	× 59 / 320	1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,699	2475.6	− 2436	39.6	× 58 / 297	7.7
4	79,700	2536.9	− 2485	51.9	× 67 / 297	11.7
5	79,701	2528.1	− 2528	0.1	× 53 / 297	0
6	79,702	2520.3	− 2552	−31.7	× 44 / 297	−4.7
7	79,703	2560.8	− 2567	−6.2	× 27 / 297	−0.6
8	79,704	2611.5	− 2586	25.5	× 48 / 297	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						18

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 15, 18, 33, 37, 37, 4, 10, 15, 15, 18 → 20.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2021: 33 · 2021→2022: 6 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 7.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.7 × 2.66 = 20.5. Upper limit 40.7, lower limit −0.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.