Ocean Shore Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,045	2432.7	− 2436	−3.3	× 46 / 259	−0.6
4	83,046	2500.2	− 2485	15.2	× 48 / 259	2.8
5	83,049	2540.1	− 2528	12.1	× 49 / 259	2.3
6	83,050	2515.4	− 2552	−36.6	× 44 / 259	−6.2
7	83,053	2602.9	− 2567	35.9	× 43 / 259	6
8	83,054	2596.0	− 2586	10	× 29 / 259	1.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,010	2454.3	− 2436	18.3	× 48 / 280	3.1
4	77,012	2490.0	− 2485	5	× 47 / 280	0.8
5	77,014	2526.9	− 2528	−1.1	× 48 / 280	−0.2
6	77,017	2557.0	− 2552	5	× 47 / 280	0.8
7	77,018	2557.0	− 2567	−10	× 47 / 280	−1.7
8	77,020	2616.5	− 2586	30.5	× 43 / 280	4.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,102	2472.4	− 2436	36.4	× 47 / 277	6.2
4	79,104	2513.3	− 2485	28.3	× 47 / 277	4.8
5	79,106	2529.3	− 2528	1.3	× 47 / 277	0.2
6	79,108	2541.7	− 2552	−10.3	× 44 / 277	−1.6
7	79,109	2595.6	− 2567	28.6	× 45 / 277	4.6
8	79,111	2585.1	− 2586	−0.9	× 47 / 277	−0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,241	2464.2	− 2436	28.2	× 48 / 280	4.8
4	79,242	2504.3	− 2485	19.3	× 48 / 280	3.3
5	79,245	2548.3	− 2528	20.3	× 48 / 280	3.5
6	79,246	2553.0	− 2552	1	× 46 / 280	0.2
7	79,249	2581.9	− 2567	14.9	× 44 / 280	2.3
8	79,250	2613.7	− 2586	27.7	× 46 / 280	4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						19

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,773	2465.2	− 2436	29.2	× 49 / 282	5.1
4	79,774	2518.4	− 2485	33.4	× 44 / 282	5.2
5	79,775	2539.9	− 2528	11.9	× 49 / 282	2.1
6	79,776	2566.4	− 2552	14.4	× 47 / 282	2.4
7	79,777	2563.3	− 2567	−3.7	× 46 / 282	−0.6
8	79,778	2565.8	− 2586	−20.2	× 47 / 282	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,264	2441.6	− 2436	5.6	× 26 / 175	0.8
4	78,265	2478.7	− 2485	−6.3	× 36 / 175	−1.3
5	78,266	2527.4	− 2528	−0.6	× 36 / 175	−0.1
6	78,267	2517.5	− 2552	−34.5	× 23 / 175	−4.5
7	78,268	2572.1	− 2567	5.1	× 26 / 175	0.8
8	78,269	2511.4	− 2586	−74.6	× 28 / 175	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,025	2462.8	− 2436	26.8	× 44 / 262	4.5
4	80,026	2472.7	− 2485	−12.3	× 38 / 262	−1.8
5	80,027	2499.6	− 2528	−28.4	× 48 / 262	−5.2
6	80,028	2545.0	− 2552	−7	× 46 / 262	−1.2
7	80,029	2546.7	− 2567	−20.3	× 39 / 262	−3
8	80,030	2580.2	− 2586	−5.8	× 47 / 262	−1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,997	2464.0	− 2436	28	× 46 / 246	5.2
4	79,998	2490.2	− 2485	5.2	× 40 / 246	0.8
5	79,999	2500.9	− 2528	−27.1	× 37 / 246	−4.1
6	80,000	2533.0	− 2552	−19	× 38 / 246	−2.9
7	80,001	2564.4	− 2567	−2.6	× 44 / 246	−0.5
8	80,002	2548.1	− 2586	−37.9	× 41 / 246	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,021	2471.9	− 2436	35.9	× 46 / 237	7
4	80,022	2487.9	− 2485	2.9	× 42 / 237	0.5
5	80,023	2527.3	− 2528	−0.7	× 46 / 237	−0.1
6	80,024	2530.9	− 2552	−21.1	× 25 / 237	−2.2
7	80,025	2567.8	− 2567	0.8	× 38 / 237	0.1
8	80,026	2552.9	− 2586	−33.1	× 40 / 237	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,685	2446.6	− 2436	10.6	× 40 / 214	2
4	79,686	2507.6	− 2485	22.6	× 46 / 214	4.9
5	79,687	2532.3	− 2528	4.3	× 42 / 214	0.8
6	79,688	2508.7	− 2552	−43.3	× 26 / 214	−5.3
7	79,689	2556.5	− 2567	−10.5	× 26 / 214	−1.3
8	79,690	2581.7	− 2586	−4.3	× 34 / 214	−0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 5, 8, 14, 19, 11, −16, −8, −8, 0, 0 → 2.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2021: 27 · 2021→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 7.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.2 × 2.66 = 19.2. Upper limit 21.7, lower limit −16.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.