John F. Kennedy Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,899	2457.0	− 2436	21	× 65 / 197	6.9
4	82,900	2473.1	− 2485	−11.9	× 73 / 197	−4.4
5	82,903	2482.7	− 2528	−45.3	× 59 / 197	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,863	2413.6	− 2436	−22.4	× 69 / 200	−7.7
4	76,864	2497.5	− 2485	12.5	× 59 / 200	3.7
5	76,866	2484.5	− 2528	−43.5	× 72 / 200	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,945	2421.3	− 2436	−14.7	× 94 / 211	−6.5
4	78,948	2489.6	− 2485	4.6	× 61 / 211	1.3
5	78,950	2496.2	− 2528	−31.8	× 56 / 211	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,091	2393.1	− 2436	−42.9	× 47 / 191	−10.6
4	79,093	2490.1	− 2485	5.1	× 82 / 191	2.2
5	79,094	2454.3	− 2528	−73.7	× 62 / 191	−23.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,620	2440.1	− 2436	4.1	× 52 / 171	1.2
4	79,621	2489.2	− 2485	4.2	× 41 / 171	1
5	79,622	2488.3	− 2528	−39.7	× 78 / 171	−18.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,109	2392.2	− 2436	−43.8	× 41 / 93	−19.3
4	78,110	2470.7	− 2485	−14.3	× 24 / 93	−3.7
5	78,111	2543.5	− 2528	15.5	× 28 / 93	4.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,868	2454.5	− 2436	18.5	× 42 / 131	5.9
4	79,869	2495.4	− 2485	10.4	× 48 / 131	3.8
5	79,870	2454.9	− 2528	−73.1	× 41 / 131	−22.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,838	2476.9	− 2436	40.9	× 38 / 132	11.8
4	79,839	2489.1	− 2485	4.1	× 44 / 132	1.4
5	79,840	2486.9	− 2528	−41.1	× 50 / 132	−15.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,860	2447.6	− 2436	11.6	× 45 / 133	3.9
4	79,861	2527.2	− 2485	42.2	× 39 / 133	12.4
5	79,862	2491.2	− 2528	−36.8	× 49 / 133	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,526	2421.2	− 2436	−14.8	× 46 / 132	−5.2
4	79,527	2511.5	− 2485	26.5	× 48 / 132	9.6
5	79,528	2524.3	− 2528	−3.7	× 38 / 132	−1.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −11, −20, −14, −32, −16, −18, −13, −2, 3, 3 → −12
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 18 · 2018→2019: 16 · 2019→2021: 2 · 2021→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8 × 2.66 = 21.3. Upper limit 9.3, lower limit −33.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.