San Miguel Joint Union: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,026	2404.1	− 2436	−31.9	× 76 / 377	−6.4
4	82,029	2446.5	− 2485	−38.5	× 63 / 377	−6.4
5	82,030	2446.0	− 2528	−82	× 72 / 377	−15.7
6	82,033	2491.0	− 2552	−61	× 73 / 377	−11.8
7	82,034	2508.1	− 2567	−58.9	× 46 / 377	−7.2
8	82,037	2523.7	− 2586	−62.3	× 47 / 377	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,072	2434.3	− 2436	−1.7	× 66 / 374	−0.3
4	76,075	2463.2	− 2485	−21.8	× 77 / 374	−4.5
5	76,077	2484.8	− 2528	−43.2	× 59 / 374	−6.8
6	76,079	2492.4	− 2552	−59.6	× 60 / 374	−9.6
7	76,080	2518.0	− 2567	−49	× 65 / 374	−8.5
8	76,083	2519.7	− 2586	−66.3	× 47 / 374	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,110	2420.1	− 2436	−15.9	× 57 / 371	−2.4
4	78,112	2467.2	− 2485	−17.8	× 69 / 371	−3.3
5	78,114	2486.9	− 2528	−41.1	× 72 / 371	−8
6	78,116	2467.6	− 2552	−84.4	× 61 / 371	−13.9
7	78,117	2519.4	− 2567	−47.6	× 53 / 371	−6.8
8	78,119	2552.1	− 2586	−33.9	× 59 / 371	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,264	2433.1	− 2436	−2.9	× 55 / 362	−0.4
4	78,267	2456.3	− 2485	−28.7	× 62 / 362	−4.9
5	78,268	2484.7	− 2528	−43.3	× 68 / 362	−8.1
6	78,271	2453.8	− 2552	−98.2	× 66 / 362	−17.9
7	78,272	2509.4	− 2567	−57.6	× 59 / 362	−9.4
8	78,275	2539.5	− 2586	−46.5	× 52 / 362	−6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,797	2415.0	− 2436	−21	× 66 / 367	−3.8
4	78,798	2474.7	− 2485	−10.3	× 54 / 367	−1.5
5	78,799	2486.7	− 2528	−41.3	× 61 / 367	−6.9
6	78,800	2478.4	− 2552	−73.6	× 74 / 367	−14.8
7	78,801	2535.9	− 2567	−31.1	× 55 / 367	−4.7
8	78,802	2534.6	− 2586	−51.4	× 57 / 367	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,065	2412.7	− 2436	−23.3	× 79 / 381	−4.8
4	79,066	2466.9	− 2485	−18.1	× 69 / 381	−3.3
5	79,067	2457.5	− 2528	−70.5	× 74 / 381	−13.7
6	79,068	2450.2	− 2552	−101.8	× 64 / 381	−17.1
7	79,069	2490.1	− 2567	−76.9	× 49 / 381	−9.9
8	79,070	2492.7	− 2586	−93.3	× 46 / 381	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,047	2424.6	− 2436	−11.4	× 66 / 382	−2
4	79,048	2432.2	− 2485	−52.8	× 79 / 382	−10.9
5	79,049	2468.1	− 2528	−59.9	× 66 / 382	−10.3
6	79,050	2480.3	− 2552	−71.7	× 71 / 382	−13.3
7	79,051	2479.8	− 2567	−87.2	× 59 / 382	−13.5
8	79,052	2498.8	− 2586	−87.2	× 41 / 382	−9.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,073	2415.0	− 2436	−21	× 68 / 392	−3.6
4	79,074	2485.7	− 2485	0.7	× 65 / 392	0.1
5	79,075	2462.1	− 2528	−65.9	× 72 / 392	−12.1
6	79,076	2472.0	− 2552	−80	× 63 / 392	−12.9
7	79,077	2498.5	− 2567	−68.5	× 65 / 392	−11.4
8	79,078	2482.5	− 2586	−103.5	× 59 / 392	−15.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,751	2433.3	− 2436	−2.7	× 61 / 394	−0.4
4	78,752	2477.7	− 2485	−7.3	× 67 / 394	−1.2
5	78,753	2496.3	− 2528	−31.7	× 70 / 394	−5.6
6	78,754	2473.9	− 2552	−78.1	× 76 / 394	−15.1
7	78,755	2499.7	− 2567	−67.3	× 62 / 394	−10.6
8	78,756	2530.3	− 2586	−55.7	× 58 / 394	−8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −55, −38, −40, −47, −40, −60, −59, −55, −41 → −48.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 17 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2022: 20 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9 × 2.66 = 23.9. Upper limit −24.4, lower limit −72.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.