Baywood Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,003	2405.6	− 2436	−30.4	× 65 / 183	−10.8
4	82,004	2460.5	− 2485	−24.5	× 59 / 183	−7.9
5	82,007	2495.6	− 2528	−32.4	× 59 / 183	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,048	2446.9	− 2436	10.9	× 40 / 165	2.6
4	76,051	2474.9	− 2485	−10.1	× 62 / 165	−3.8
5	76,053	2512.0	− 2528	−16	× 63 / 165	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,086	2449.5	− 2436	13.5	× 58 / 166	4.7
4	78,088	2498.5	− 2485	13.5	× 43 / 166	3.5
5	78,090	2521.8	− 2528	−6.2	× 65 / 166	−2.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,241	2452.3	− 2436	16.3	× 56 / 151	6
4	78,242	2489.0	− 2485	4	× 47 / 151	1.2
5	78,245	2531.8	− 2528	3.8	× 48 / 151	1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,770	2479.5	− 2436	43.5	× 52 / 151	15
4	78,771	2479.5	− 2485	−5.5	× 51 / 151	−1.9
5	78,772	2507.3	− 2528	−20.7	× 48 / 151	−6.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,331	2439.8	− 2436	3.8	× 47 / 130	1.4
4	77,332	2469.6	− 2485	−15.4	× 45 / 130	−5.3
5	77,333	2491.4	− 2528	−36.6	× 38 / 130	−10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,038	2482.8	− 2436	46.8	× 51 / 147	16.2
4	79,039	2453.5	− 2485	−31.5	× 41 / 147	−8.8
5	79,040	2465.7	− 2528	−62.3	× 55 / 147	−23.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,020	2452.7	− 2436	16.7	× 64 / 141	7.6
4	79,021	2506.9	− 2485	21.9	× 35 / 141	5.4
5	79,022	2471.5	− 2528	−56.5	× 42 / 141	−16.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,046	2425.8	− 2436	−10.2	× 52 / 154	−3.4
4	79,047	2445.1	− 2485	−39.9	× 56 / 154	−14.5
5	79,048	2506.8	− 2528	−21.2	× 46 / 154	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,724	2387.5	− 2436	−48.5	× 53 / 148	−17.4
4	78,725	2487.0	− 2485	2	× 43 / 148	0.6
5	78,726	2496.9	− 2528	−31.1	× 52 / 148	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −29, −7, 6, 8, 7, −15, −16, −4, −24, −28 → −10.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 22 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2021: 22 · 2021→2022: 1 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 20 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 10.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.8 × 2.66 = 28.7. Upper limit 18.5, lower limit −38.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.