Branch Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,731	2467.4	− 2436	31.4	× 43 / 184	7.3
4	81,733	2480.1	− 2485	−4.9	× 43 / 184	−1.1
5	81,735	2535.1	− 2528	7.1	× 38 / 184	1.5
6	81,737	2539.5	− 2552	−12.5	× 60 / 184	−4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,780	2448.7	− 2436	12.7	× 53 / 188	3.6
4	75,783	2510.6	− 2485	25.6	× 41 / 188	5.6
5	75,785	2498.0	− 2528	−30	× 45 / 188	−7.2
6	75,787	2560.4	− 2552	8.4	× 49 / 188	2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,813	2442.7	− 2436	6.7	× 56 / 185	2
4	77,816	2501.3	− 2485	16.3	× 51 / 185	4.5
5	77,817	2525.7	− 2528	−2.3	× 37 / 185	−0.5
6	77,819	2527.4	− 2552	−24.6	× 41 / 185	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,975	2444.6	− 2436	8.6	× 51 / 191	2.3
4	77,977	2500.9	− 2485	15.9	× 57 / 191	4.7
5	77,978	2538.3	− 2528	10.3	× 47 / 191	2.5
6	77,980	2588.1	− 2552	36.1	× 36 / 191	6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						16

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,507	2437.8	− 2436	1.8	× 41 / 195	0.4
4	78,508	2494.3	− 2485	9.3	× 52 / 195	2.5
5	78,509	2516.9	− 2528	−11.1	× 55 / 195	−3.1
6	78,510	2563.2	− 2552	11.2	× 47 / 195	2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,775	2427.6	− 2436	−8.4	× 28 / 144	−1.6
4	78,776	2520.0	− 2485	35	× 42 / 144	10.2
5	78,777	2491.8	− 2528	−36.2	× 37 / 144	−9.3
6	78,778	2558.3	− 2552	6.3	× 37 / 144	1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,761	2464.7	− 2436	28.7	× 36 / 139	7.4
4	78,762	2523.9	− 2485	38.9	× 24 / 139	6.7
5	78,763	2550.5	− 2528	22.5	× 40 / 139	6.5
6	78,764	2551.7	− 2552	−0.3	× 39 / 139	−0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						21

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,787	2468.2	− 2436	32.2	× 33 / 138	7.7
4	78,788	2540.3	− 2485	55.3	× 37 / 138	14.8
5	78,789	2539.1	− 2528	11.1	× 29 / 138	2.3
6	78,790	2583.8	− 2552	31.8	× 39 / 138	9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						34

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,467	2485.3	− 2436	49.3	× 35 / 133	13
4	78,468	2561.9	− 2485	76.9	× 34 / 133	19.7
5	78,469	2582.0	− 2528	54	× 34 / 133	13.8
6	78,470	2565.2	− 2552	13.2	× 30 / 133	3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						49

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 4, 4, 1, 16, 2, 1, 21, 34, 49 → 14.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 0 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 14 · 2019→2022: 1 · 2022→2023: 20 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 15 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit 41.6, lower limit −12.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.