North Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,272	2373.6	− 2436	−62.4	× 66 / 326	−12.6
4	81,274	2412.4	− 2485	−72.6	× 75 / 326	−16.7
5	81,276	2413.4	− 2528	−114.6	× 87 / 326	−30.6
8	81,282	2490.7	− 2586	−95.3	× 98 / 326	−28.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,333	2397.0	− 2436	−39	× 88 / 535	−6.4
4	75,334	2419.3	− 2485	−65.7	× 75 / 535	−9.2
5	75,337	2436.2	− 2528	−91.8	× 80 / 535	−13.7
6	75,339	2452.8	− 2552	−99.2	× 93 / 535	−17.2
7	75,341	2482.5	− 2567	−84.5	× 99 / 535	−15.6
8	75,342	2516.8	− 2586	−69.2	× 100 / 535	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,347	2402.6	− 2436	−33.4	× 78 / 508	−5.1
4	77,350	2409.5	− 2485	−75.5	× 84 / 508	−12.5
5	77,352	2423.4	− 2528	−104.6	× 78 / 508	−16.1
6	77,353	2477.1	− 2552	−74.9	× 78 / 508	−11.5
7	77,355	2481.3	− 2567	−85.7	× 85 / 508	−14.3
8	77,357	2509.7	− 2586	−76.3	× 105 / 508	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,531	2391.5	− 2436	−44.5	× 77 / 515	−6.7
4	77,532	2425.6	− 2485	−59.4	× 81 / 515	−9.3
5	77,535	2452.8	− 2528	−75.2	× 84 / 515	−12.3
6	77,536	2455.3	− 2552	−96.7	× 102 / 515	−19.2
7	77,539	2479.5	− 2567	−87.5	× 81 / 515	−13.8
8	77,540	2524.9	− 2586	−61.1	× 90 / 515	−10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,053	2422.5	− 2436	−13.5	× 76 / 538	−1.9
4	78,054	2400.2	− 2485	−84.8	× 76 / 538	−12
5	78,055	2457.3	− 2528	−70.7	× 75 / 538	−9.9
6	78,056	2448.3	− 2552	−103.7	× 120 / 538	−23.1
7	78,057	2464.3	− 2567	−102.7	× 108 / 538	−20.6
8	78,058	2517.0	− 2586	−69	× 83 / 538	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,586	2354.4	− 2436	−81.6	× 75 / 533	−11.5
4	76,587	2390.7	− 2485	−94.3	× 59 / 533	−10.4
5	76,588	2407.2	− 2528	−120.8	× 69 / 533	−15.6
6	76,589	2440.3	− 2552	−111.7	× 111 / 533	−23.3
7	76,590	2441.8	− 2567	−125.2	× 105 / 533	−24.7
8	76,591	2447.0	− 2586	−139	× 114 / 533	−29.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,199	2362.9	− 2436	−73.1	× 72 / 587	−9
4	78,200	2381.9	− 2485	−103.1	× 84 / 587	−14.8
5	78,201	2391.8	− 2528	−136.2	× 64 / 587	−14.8
6	78,202	2416.3	− 2552	−135.7	× 124 / 587	−28.7
7	78,203	2447.7	− 2567	−119.3	× 123 / 587	−25
8	78,204	2452.9	− 2586	−133.1	× 120 / 587	−27.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,191	2362.5	− 2436	−73.5	× 61 / 571	−7.9
4	78,192	2400.6	− 2485	−84.4	× 75 / 571	−11.1
5	78,193	2410.0	− 2528	−118	× 77 / 571	−15.9
6	78,194	2431.1	− 2552	−120.9	× 117 / 571	−24.8
7	78,195	2431.0	− 2567	−136	× 120 / 571	−28.6
8	78,196	2477.1	− 2586	−108.9	× 121 / 571	−23.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−111

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,207	2375.3	− 2436	−60.7	× 58 / 536	−6.6
4	78,208	2370.2	− 2485	−114.8	× 61 / 536	−13.1
5	78,209	2413.4	− 2528	−114.6	× 76 / 536	−16.2
6	78,210	2410.3	− 2552	−141.7	× 117 / 536	−30.9
7	78,211	2437.9	− 2567	−129.1	× 108 / 536	−26
8	78,212	2437.7	− 2586	−148.3	× 116 / 536	−32.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−125

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,875	2354.2	− 2436	−81.8	× 67 / 526	−10.4
4	77,876	2407.8	− 2485	−77.2	× 62 / 526	−9.1
5	77,877	2392.3	− 2528	−135.7	× 62 / 526	−16
6	77,878	2414.0	− 2552	−138	× 121 / 526	−31.7
7	77,879	2425.8	− 2567	−141.2	× 110 / 526	−29.5
8	77,880	2470.7	− 2586	−115.3	× 104 / 526	−22.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−120

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −89, −75, −75, −72, −78, −115, −119, −111, −125, −120 → −97.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 37 · 2021→2022: 4 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit −71, lower limit −124.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.