Wilson Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,021	2401.2	− 2436	−34.8	× 60 / 203	−10.3
4	81,023	2431.2	− 2485	−53.8	× 29 / 203	−7.7
5	81,025	2444.0	− 2528	−84	× 32 / 203	−13.2
6	81,027	2485.4	− 2552	−66.6	× 29 / 203	−9.5
7	81,029	2488.1	− 2567	−78.9	× 28 / 203	−10.9
8	81,031	2525.3	− 2586	−60.7	× 25 / 203	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,123	2384.1	− 2436	−51.9	× 59 / 206	−14.9
4	75,124	2405.0	− 2485	−80	× 33 / 206	−12.8
5	75,126	2459.7	− 2528	−68.3	× 30 / 206	−9.9
6	75,129	2498.8	− 2552	−53.2	× 30 / 206	−7.7
7	75,131	2504.5	− 2567	−62.5	× 27 / 206	−8.2
8	75,133	2486.3	− 2586	−99.7	× 27 / 206	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,131	2375.1	− 2436	−60.9	× 58 / 208	−17
4	77,134	2381.2	− 2485	−103.8	× 32 / 208	−16
5	77,135	2445.3	− 2528	−82.7	× 30 / 208	−11.9
6	77,138	2516.8	− 2552	−35.2	× 28 / 208	−4.7
7	77,139	2505.5	− 2567	−61.5	× 31 / 208	−9.2
8	77,141	2492.2	− 2586	−93.8	× 29 / 208	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,321	2415.1	− 2436	−20.9	× 49 / 212	−4.8
4	77,322	2420.2	− 2485	−64.8	× 42 / 212	−12.8
5	77,324	2456.1	− 2528	−71.9	× 30 / 212	−10.2
6	77,327	2469.6	− 2552	−82.4	× 31 / 212	−12
7	77,328	2497.4	− 2567	−69.6	× 29 / 212	−9.5
8	77,330	2504.8	− 2586	−81.2	× 31 / 212	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,843	2365.3	− 2436	−70.7	× 44 / 189	−16.5
4	77,844	2479.6	− 2485	−5.4	× 29 / 189	−0.8
5	77,845	2394.3	− 2528	−133.7	× 31 / 189	−21.9
6	77,846	2447.1	− 2552	−104.9	× 29 / 189	−16.1
7	77,847	2464.0	− 2567	−103	× 29 / 189	−15.8
8	77,848	2504.5	− 2586	−81.5	× 27 / 189	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,979	2374.3	− 2436	−61.7	× 42 / 206	−12.6
4	77,980	2376.6	− 2485	−108.4	× 51 / 206	−26.8
5	77,981	2411.7	− 2528	−116.3	× 30 / 206	−16.9
6	77,982	2431.6	− 2552	−120.4	× 31 / 206	−18.1
7	77,983	2458.5	− 2567	−108.5	× 28 / 206	−14.7
8	77,984	2419.3	− 2586	−166.7	× 24 / 206	−19.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,971	2344.1	− 2436	−91.9	× 38 / 217	−16.1
4	77,972	2399.8	− 2485	−85.2	× 44 / 217	−17.3
5	77,973	2379.6	− 2528	−148.4	× 50 / 217	−34.2
6	77,974	2447.6	− 2552	−104.4	× 27 / 217	−13
7	77,975	2463.4	− 2567	−103.6	× 29 / 217	−13.8
8	77,976	2458.9	− 2586	−127.1	× 29 / 217	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−111

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,989	2364.2	− 2436	−71.8	× 37 / 209	−12.7
4	77,990	2370.4	− 2485	−114.6	× 29 / 209	−15.9
5	77,991	2406.5	− 2528	−121.5	× 47 / 209	−27.3
6	77,992	2380.2	− 2552	−171.8	× 47 / 209	−38.6
7	77,993	2434.1	− 2567	−132.9	× 25 / 209	−15.9
8	77,994	2454.4	− 2586	−131.6	× 24 / 209	−15.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−126

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,651	2371.9	− 2436	−64.1	× 37 / 205	−11.6
4	77,652	2375.1	− 2485	−109.9	× 28 / 205	−15
5	77,653	2388.3	− 2528	−139.7	× 15 / 205	−10.2
6	77,654	2451.2	− 2552	−100.8	× 50 / 205	−24.6
7	77,655	2425.4	− 2567	−141.6	× 51 / 205	−35.2
8	77,656	2414.2	− 2586	−171.8	× 24 / 205	−20.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −59, −67, −72, −61, −83, −109, −111, −126, −117 → −89.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 22 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 15 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 12.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.3 × 2.66 = 32.7. Upper limit −56.7, lower limit −122.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.