San Joaquin Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,115	2416.2	− 2436	−19.8	× 96 / 600	−3.2
4	81,118	2417.3	− 2485	−67.7	× 103 / 600	−11.6
5	81,119	2442.8	− 2528	−85.2	× 101 / 600	−14.3
6	81,122	2473.9	− 2552	−78.1	× 100 / 600	−13
7	81,123	2496.2	− 2567	−70.8	× 99 / 600	−11.7
8	81,126	2528.0	− 2586	−58	× 101 / 600	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,207	2413.9	− 2436	−22.1	× 93 / 576	−3.6
4	75,209	2449.4	− 2485	−35.6	× 97 / 576	−6
5	75,211	2445.0	− 2528	−83	× 98 / 576	−14.1
6	75,212	2470.0	− 2552	−82	× 100 / 576	−14.2
7	75,214	2507.6	− 2567	−59.4	× 91 / 576	−9.4
8	75,216	2528.7	− 2586	−57.3	× 97 / 576	−9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,218	2412.8	− 2436	−23.2	× 85 / 572	−3.4
4	77,219	2443.0	− 2485	−42	× 94 / 572	−6.9
5	77,221	2462.4	− 2528	−65.6	× 102 / 572	−11.7
6	77,223	2461.9	− 2552	−90.1	× 103 / 572	−16.2
7	77,226	2480.8	− 2567	−86.2	× 92 / 572	−13.9
8	77,227	2488.0	− 2586	−98	× 96 / 572	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,399	2402.3	− 2436	−33.7	× 81 / 585	−4.7
4	77,400	2428.9	− 2485	−56.1	× 98 / 585	−9.4
5	77,403	2440.8	− 2528	−87.2	× 101 / 585	−15.1
6	77,405	2486.9	− 2552	−65.1	× 104 / 585	−11.6
7	77,407	2475.2	− 2567	−91.8	× 105 / 585	−16.5
8	77,408	2459.1	− 2586	−126.9	× 96 / 585	−20.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,919	2418.5	− 2436	−17.5	× 75 / 565	−2.3
4	77,920	2429.4	− 2485	−55.6	× 90 / 565	−8.9
5	77,921	2432.1	− 2528	−95.9	× 97 / 565	−16.5
6	77,922	2460.3	− 2552	−91.7	× 99 / 565	−16.1
7	77,923	2506.8	− 2567	−60.2	× 102 / 565	−10.9
8	77,924	2464.5	− 2586	−121.5	× 102 / 565	−21.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,053	2396.8	− 2436	−39.2	× 92 / 516	−7
4	78,054	2404.8	− 2485	−80.2	× 73 / 516	−11.3
5	78,055	2428.6	− 2528	−99.4	× 64 / 516	−12.3
6	78,056	2488.2	− 2552	−63.8	× 105 / 516	−13
7	78,057	2449.7	− 2567	−117.3	× 85 / 516	−19.3
8	78,058	2438.4	− 2586	−147.6	× 97 / 516	−27.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,045	2425.9	− 2436	−10.1	× 74 / 501	−1.5
4	78,046	2417.3	− 2485	−67.7	× 94 / 501	−12.7
5	78,047	2409.7	− 2528	−118.3	× 86 / 501	−20.3
6	78,048	2522.2	− 2552	−29.8	× 67 / 501	−4
7	78,049	2497.8	− 2567	−69.2	× 98 / 501	−13.5
8	78,050	2430.6	− 2586	−155.4	× 82 / 501	−25.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,059	2430.8	− 2436	−5.2	× 71 / 490	−0.8
4	78,060	2445.8	− 2485	−39.2	× 67 / 490	−5.4
5	78,061	2433.6	− 2528	−94.4	× 89 / 490	−17.1
6	78,062	2471.6	− 2552	−80.4	× 96 / 490	−15.8
7	78,063	2500.4	− 2567	−66.6	× 68 / 490	−9.2
8	78,064	2474.0	− 2586	−112	× 99 / 490	−22.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,727	2400.9	− 2436	−35.1	× 87 / 484	−6.3
4	77,728	2442.5	− 2485	−42.5	× 74 / 484	−6.5
5	77,729	2454.1	− 2528	−73.9	× 71 / 484	−10.8
6	77,730	2487.1	− 2552	−64.9	× 94 / 484	−12.6
7	77,731	2456.0	− 2567	−111	× 92 / 484	−21.1
8	77,732	2510.8	− 2586	−75.2	× 66 / 484	−10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −64, −57, −69, −78, −77, −91, −77, −71, −68 → −72.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 8.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.3 × 2.66 = 22.1. Upper limit −50.3, lower limit −94.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.