Montezuma Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,895	2342.0	− 2436	−94	× 94 / 460	−19.2
4	80,897	2392.5	− 2485	−92.5	× 84 / 460	−16.9
5	80,899	2400.5	− 2528	−127.5	× 84 / 460	−23.3
6	80,901	2454.1	− 2552	−97.9	× 69 / 460	−14.7
7	80,903	2443.7	− 2567	−123.3	× 65 / 460	−17.4
8	80,905	2438.2	− 2586	−147.8	× 64 / 460	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−112

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,996	2376.2	− 2436	−59.8	× 94 / 464	−12.1
4	74,999	2403.0	− 2485	−82	× 82 / 464	−14.5
5	75,000	2431.8	− 2528	−96.2	× 86 / 464	−17.8
6	75,003	2441.1	− 2552	−110.9	× 72 / 464	−17.2
7	75,005	2484.9	− 2567	−82.1	× 69 / 464	−12.2
8	75,007	2475.4	− 2586	−110.6	× 61 / 464	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,005	2380.0	− 2436	−56	× 88 / 463	−10.6
4	77,007	2391.0	− 2485	−94	× 96 / 463	−19.5
5	77,009	2430.8	− 2528	−97.2	× 70 / 463	−14.7
6	77,012	2431.0	− 2552	−121	× 77 / 463	−20.1
7	77,013	2437.2	− 2567	−129.8	× 65 / 463	−18.2
8	77,016	2477.5	− 2586	−108.5	× 67 / 463	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,195	2396.7	− 2436	−39.3	× 84 / 457	−7.2
4	77,197	2426.9	− 2485	−58.1	× 74 / 457	−9.4
5	77,199	2430.3	− 2528	−97.7	× 92 / 457	−19.7
6	77,201	2461.5	− 2552	−90.5	× 69 / 457	−13.7
7	77,203	2444.0	− 2567	−123	× 72 / 457	−19.4
8	77,205	2447.9	− 2586	−138.1	× 66 / 457	−19.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,717	2400.9	− 2436	−35.1	× 81 / 456	−6.2
4	77,718	2428.2	− 2485	−56.8	× 82 / 456	−10.2
5	77,719	2450.4	− 2528	−77.6	× 69 / 456	−11.7
6	77,720	2475.1	− 2552	−76.9	× 88 / 456	−14.8
7	77,721	2487.7	− 2567	−79.3	× 68 / 456	−11.8
8	77,722	2483.2	− 2586	−102.8	× 68 / 456	−15.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,867	2396.8	− 2436	−39.2	× 73 / 412	−6.9
4	77,868	2420.0	− 2485	−65	× 70 / 412	−11
5	77,869	2413.0	− 2528	−115	× 67 / 412	−18.7
6	77,870	2441.1	− 2552	−110.9	× 71 / 412	−19.1
7	77,871	2466.6	− 2567	−100.4	× 67 / 412	−16.3
8	77,872	2472.6	− 2586	−113.4	× 64 / 412	−17.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,859	2363.6	− 2436	−72.4	× 70 / 387	−13.1
4	77,860	2430.5	− 2485	−54.5	× 62 / 387	−8.7
5	77,861	2441.2	− 2528	−86.8	× 65 / 387	−14.6
6	77,862	2430.3	− 2552	−121.7	× 62 / 387	−19.5
7	77,863	2486.7	− 2567	−80.3	× 66 / 387	−13.7
8	77,864	2506.8	− 2586	−79.2	× 62 / 387	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,877	2360.7	− 2436	−75.3	× 98 / 425	−17.4
4	77,878	2395.0	− 2485	−90	× 68 / 425	−14.4
5	77,879	2417.3	− 2528	−110.7	× 66 / 425	−17.2
6	77,880	2437.8	− 2552	−114.2	× 64 / 425	−17.2
7	77,881	2469.5	− 2567	−97.5	× 60 / 425	−13.8
8	77,882	2511.5	− 2586	−74.5	× 69 / 425	−12.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,539	2384.4	− 2436	−51.6	× 65 / 406	−8.3
4	77,540	2400.2	− 2485	−84.8	× 88 / 406	−18.4
5	77,541	2408.9	− 2528	−119.1	× 63 / 406	−18.5
6	77,542	2444.9	− 2552	−107.1	× 65 / 406	−17.1
7	77,543	2471.6	− 2567	−95.4	× 65 / 406	−15.3
8	77,544	2528.2	− 2586	−57.8	× 60 / 406	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −112, −88, −99, −89, −70, −90, −82, −92, −86 → −89.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 24 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 19 · 2019→2022: 20 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 13.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.5 × 2.66 = 35.9. Upper limit −53.9, lower limit −125.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.