John C. Fremont Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,509	2338.1	− 2436	−97.9	× 126 / 595	−20.7
4	80,512	2387.5	− 2485	−97.5	× 103 / 595	−16.9
5	80,513	2387.7	− 2528	−140.3	× 116 / 595	−27.4
6	80,516	2397.0	− 2552	−155	× 93 / 595	−24.2
7	80,517	2426.6	− 2567	−140.4	× 69 / 595	−16.3
8	80,520	2441.2	− 2586	−144.8	× 88 / 595	−21.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−127

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,610	2354.2	− 2436	−81.8	× 121 / 604	−16.4
4	74,613	2401.3	− 2485	−83.7	× 122 / 604	−16.9
5	74,615	2404.9	− 2528	−123.1	× 99 / 604	−20.2
6	74,617	2373.3	− 2552	−178.7	× 100 / 604	−29.6
7	74,618	2414.7	− 2567	−152.3	× 92 / 604	−23.2
8	74,621	2446.1	− 2586	−139.9	× 70 / 604	−16.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−122

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,595	2371.1	− 2436	−64.9	× 87 / 602	−9.4
4	76,598	2379.1	− 2485	−105.9	× 115 / 602	−20.2
5	76,600	2405.6	− 2528	−122.4	× 118 / 602	−24
6	76,601	2399.4	− 2552	−152.6	× 89 / 602	−22.6
7	76,603	2411.9	− 2567	−155.1	× 100 / 602	−25.8
8	76,606	2403.8	− 2586	−182.2	× 93 / 602	−28.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−130

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,778	2358.6	− 2436	−77.4	× 78 / 586	−10.3
4	76,780	2369.8	− 2485	−115.2	× 94 / 586	−18.5
5	76,782	2400.4	− 2528	−127.6	× 113 / 586	−24.6
6	76,784	2445.2	− 2552	−106.8	× 108 / 586	−19.7
7	76,786	2415.5	− 2567	−151.5	× 94 / 586	−24.3
8	76,788	2435.2	− 2586	−150.8	× 99 / 586	−25.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−123

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,285	2387.4	− 2436	−48.6	× 74 / 598	−6
4	77,286	2398.8	− 2485	−86.2	× 83 / 598	−12
5	77,287	2424.1	− 2528	−103.9	× 96 / 598	−16.7
6	77,288	2414.9	− 2552	−137.1	× 127 / 598	−29.1
7	77,289	2435.9	− 2567	−131.1	× 120 / 598	−26.3
8	77,290	2433.0	− 2586	−153	× 98 / 598	−25.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,437	2312.8	− 2436	−123.2	× 90 / 527	−21
4	77,438	2372.0	− 2485	−113	× 91 / 527	−19.5
5	77,439	2409.6	− 2528	−118.4	× 97 / 527	−21.8
6	77,440	2435.8	− 2552	−116.2	× 60 / 527	−13.2
7	77,441	2434.1	− 2567	−132.9	× 99 / 527	−25
8	77,442	2430.1	− 2586	−155.9	× 90 / 527	−26.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−127

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,423	2327.0	− 2436	−109	× 86 / 483	−19.4
4	77,424	2387.0	− 2485	−98	× 84 / 483	−17
5	77,425	2393.9	− 2528	−134.1	× 92 / 483	−25.5
6	77,426	2448.7	− 2552	−103.3	× 88 / 483	−18.8
7	77,427	2456.3	− 2567	−110.7	× 56 / 483	−12.8
8	77,428	2443.9	− 2586	−142.1	× 77 / 483	−22.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−116

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,423	2332.5	− 2436	−103.5	× 95 / 518	−19
4	77,424	2366.9	− 2485	−118.1	× 90 / 518	−20.5
5	77,425	2401.3	− 2528	−126.7	× 86 / 518	−21
6	77,426	2396.1	− 2552	−155.9	× 92 / 518	−27.7
7	77,427	2458.4	− 2567	−108.6	× 93 / 518	−19.5
8	77,428	2453.0	− 2586	−133	× 62 / 518	−15.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−124

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,077	2330.3	− 2436	−105.7	× 93 / 528	−18.6
4	77,078	2378.5	− 2485	−106.5	× 89 / 528	−18
5	77,079	2393.4	− 2528	−134.6	× 88 / 528	−22.4
6	77,080	2411.6	− 2552	−140.4	× 83 / 528	−22.1
7	77,081	2431.1	− 2567	−135.9	× 89 / 528	−22.9
8	77,082	2447.2	− 2586	−138.8	× 86 / 528	−22.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−127

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −127, −122, −130, −123, −115, −127, −116, −124, −127 → −123.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 7.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.8 × 2.66 = 20.7. Upper limit −102.7, lower limit −144.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.