Fillmore Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,769	2381.3	− 2436	−54.7	× 91 / 526	−9.5
4	80,772	2413.8	− 2485	−71.2	× 92 / 526	−12.5
5	80,773	2450.1	− 2528	−77.9	× 67 / 526	−9.9
6	80,776	2452.7	− 2552	−99.3	× 99 / 526	−18.7
7	80,777	2468.5	− 2567	−98.5	× 87 / 526	−16.3
8	80,780	2510.0	− 2586	−76	× 90 / 526	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,871	2400.4	− 2436	−35.6	× 92 / 531	−6.2
4	74,872	2432.0	− 2485	−53	× 93 / 531	−9.3
5	74,875	2436.4	− 2528	−91.6	× 94 / 531	−16.2
6	74,876	2473.1	− 2552	−78.9	× 71 / 531	−10.5
7	74,878	2496.8	− 2567	−70.2	× 94 / 531	−12.4
8	74,881	2494.3	− 2586	−91.7	× 87 / 531	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,880	2436.1	− 2436	0.1	× 87 / 550	0
4	76,881	2414.6	− 2485	−70.4	× 100 / 550	−12.8
5	76,883	2445.8	− 2528	−82.2	× 90 / 550	−13.5
6	76,885	2436.2	− 2552	−115.8	× 95 / 550	−20
7	76,888	2472.1	− 2567	−94.9	× 91 / 550	−15.7
8	76,889	2517.2	− 2586	−68.8	× 87 / 550	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,068	2427.2	− 2436	−8.8	× 80 / 556	−1.3
4	77,070	2433.6	− 2485	−51.4	× 94 / 556	−8.7
5	77,072	2419.9	− 2528	−108.1	× 101 / 556	−19.6
6	77,074	2448.3	− 2552	−103.7	× 95 / 556	−17.7
7	77,076	2462.4	− 2567	−104.6	× 94 / 556	−17.7
8	77,078	2488.5	− 2586	−97.5	× 92 / 556	−16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,591	2417.8	− 2436	−18.2	× 70 / 522	−2.4
4	77,592	2433.4	− 2485	−51.6	× 80 / 522	−7.9
5	77,593	2449.4	− 2528	−78.6	× 91 / 522	−13.7
6	77,594	2451.6	− 2552	−100.4	× 104 / 522	−20
7	77,595	2489.3	− 2567	−77.7	× 83 / 522	−12.4
8	77,596	2468.3	− 2586	−117.7	× 94 / 522	−21.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,741	2360.1	− 2436	−75.9	× 69 / 414	−12.7
4	77,742	2381.3	− 2485	−103.7	× 60 / 414	−15
5	77,743	2419.1	− 2528	−108.9	× 87 / 414	−22.9
6	77,744	2428.0	− 2552	−124	× 62 / 414	−18.6
7	77,745	2450.4	− 2567	−116.6	× 56 / 414	−15.8
8	77,746	2465.6	− 2586	−120.4	× 80 / 414	−23.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,733	2350.1	− 2436	−85.9	× 65 / 399	−14
4	77,734	2396.5	− 2485	−88.5	× 63 / 399	−14
5	77,735	2429.3	− 2528	−98.7	× 64 / 399	−15.8
6	77,736	2433.0	− 2552	−119	× 82 / 399	−24.5
7	77,737	2462.4	− 2567	−104.6	× 62 / 399	−16.3
8	77,738	2470.5	− 2586	−115.5	× 63 / 399	−18.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−103

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,751	2351.7	− 2436	−84.3	× 62 / 402	−13
4	77,752	2380.7	− 2485	−104.3	× 64 / 402	−16.6
5	77,753	2439.6	− 2528	−88.4	× 61 / 402	−13.4
6	77,754	2447.1	− 2552	−104.9	× 65 / 402	−17
7	77,755	2438.0	− 2567	−129	× 90 / 402	−28.9
8	77,756	2462.0	− 2586	−124	× 60 / 402	−18.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,413	2346.8	− 2436	−89.2	× 50 / 375	−11.9
4	77,414	2381.6	− 2485	−103.4	× 63 / 375	−17.4
5	77,415	2389.3	− 2528	−138.7	× 62 / 375	−22.9
6	77,416	2433.5	− 2552	−118.5	× 59 / 375	−18.6
7	77,417	2463.2	− 2567	−103.8	× 60 / 375	−16.6
8	77,418	2439.9	− 2586	−146.1	× 81 / 375	−31.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −80, −70, −73, −81, −78, −108, −103, −107, −119 → −91
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 30 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 9.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.4 × 2.66 = 25. Upper limit −66, lower limit −116.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.