Commodore Stockton Skills: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,044	2417.0	− 2436	−19	× 116 / 693	−3.2
4	81,045	2466.4	− 2485	−18.6	× 125 / 693	−3.4
5	81,048	2500.5	− 2528	−27.5	× 117 / 693	−4.6
6	81,049	2528.5	− 2552	−23.5	× 111 / 693	−3.8
7	81,052	2515.4	− 2567	−51.6	× 113 / 693	−8.4
8	81,053	2516.5	− 2586	−69.5	× 111 / 693	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,137	2434.5	− 2436	−1.5	× 120 / 692	−0.3
4	75,138	2478.9	− 2485	−6.1	× 118 / 692	−1
5	75,141	2497.7	− 2528	−30.3	× 123 / 692	−5.4
6	75,143	2552.8	− 2552	0.8	× 119 / 692	0.1
7	75,144	2534.9	− 2567	−32.1	× 104 / 692	−4.8
8	75,147	2527.1	− 2586	−58.9	× 108 / 692	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,149	2433.6	− 2436	−2.4	× 114 / 705	−0.4
4	77,152	2475.5	− 2485	−9.5	× 127 / 705	−1.7
5	77,153	2493.4	− 2528	−34.6	× 122 / 705	−6
6	77,155	2535.2	− 2552	−16.8	× 125 / 705	−3
7	77,157	2546.5	− 2567	−20.5	× 118 / 705	−3.4
8	77,159	2532.6	− 2586	−53.4	× 99 / 705	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,334	2432.0	− 2436	−4	× 109 / 709	−0.6
4	77,337	2492.2	− 2485	7.2	× 122 / 709	1.2
5	77,338	2498.9	− 2528	−29.1	× 122 / 709	−5
6	77,340	2536.4	− 2552	−15.6	× 127 / 709	−2.8
7	77,342	2530.1	− 2567	−36.9	× 115 / 709	−6
8	77,344	2536.9	− 2586	−49.1	× 114 / 709	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,857	2433.3	− 2436	−2.7	× 98 / 689	−0.4
4	77,858	2467.9	− 2485	−17.1	× 113 / 689	−2.8
5	77,859	2502.9	− 2528	−25.1	× 123 / 689	−4.5
6	77,860	2531.4	− 2552	−20.6	× 128 / 689	−3.8
7	77,861	2532.6	− 2567	−34.4	× 115 / 689	−5.7
8	77,862	2530.3	− 2586	−55.7	× 112 / 689	−9.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,997	2399.0	− 2436	−37	× 110 / 652	−6.2
4	77,998	2454.6	− 2485	−30.4	× 110 / 652	−5.1
5	77,999	2463.7	− 2528	−64.3	× 111 / 652	−10.9
6	78,000	2513.5	− 2552	−38.5	× 112 / 652	−6.6
7	78,001	2502.5	− 2567	−64.5	× 97 / 652	−9.6
8	78,002	2520.2	− 2586	−65.8	× 112 / 652	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,989	2407.6	− 2436	−28.4	× 103 / 634	−4.6
4	77,990	2461.2	− 2485	−23.8	× 108 / 634	−4.1
5	77,991	2473.2	− 2528	−54.8	× 109 / 634	−9.4
6	77,992	2489.0	− 2552	−63	× 106 / 634	−10.5
7	77,993	2503.5	− 2567	−63.5	× 115 / 634	−11.5
8	77,994	2512.0	− 2586	−74	× 93 / 634	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,003	2420.3	− 2436	−15.7	× 105 / 654	−2.5
4	78,004	2446.7	− 2485	−38.3	× 108 / 654	−6.3
5	78,005	2479.4	− 2528	−48.6	× 106 / 654	−7.9
6	78,006	2517.7	− 2552	−34.3	× 114 / 654	−6
7	78,007	2497.6	− 2567	−69.4	× 108 / 654	−11.5
8	78,008	2531.9	− 2586	−54.1	× 113 / 654	−9.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,671	2429.9	− 2436	−6.1	× 101 / 648	−1
4	77,672	2463.2	− 2485	−21.8	× 108 / 648	−3.6
5	77,673	2486.0	− 2528	−42	× 102 / 648	−6.6
6	77,674	2511.0	− 2552	−41	× 105 / 648	−6.6
7	77,675	2514.4	− 2567	−52.6	× 119 / 648	−9.7
8	77,676	2521.5	− 2586	−64.5	× 113 / 648	−11.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −34, −21, −22, −21, −26, −50, −51, −44, −39 → −34.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 24 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 7.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.1 × 2.66 = 18.9. Upper limit −15.3, lower limit −53.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.